Gustav Taking Aim On The Gulf

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Before we discuss Gustav, lets talk first about our short term weather… low clouds and fog this morning should give way to a partly sunny afternoon. There will be some drizzle around this morning, but any showers this afternoon should be few and far between as Fay moves away from our state. Fay was our friend, generally speaking, bringing in the big rain event many have been praying for for months and months. J.B. will have the “big list” of storm totals later this morning. At my place in North Shelby County, we went over 9 inches. Simply amazing.

We will be dry tomorrow and Friday, with a mostly sunny sky and a high in the low 90s. The sky will be clear for high school football games tomorrow night and Friday night.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: There could be a few widely scattered showers Saturday and Sunday; otherwise partly sunny both days with a high around 90. Our weather Monday will all depend on how Gustav behaves. The models continue to show a faster movement toward the central Gulf coast, and we might be dealing with deteriorating weather here by Monday night or Tuesday.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND AT THE BEACH: Due to the faster movement of Gustav, it looks like weekend beach trips could be cut short in the path of the big storm. It is very early to speculate, but based on the official NHC track, evacuations initially could be in the New Orleans/Mississippi coast area. From Pensacola on east to Panama City, the storm could stay far enough west for no serious impact. But, this could change. We should mention that Saturday and Sunday should be generally sunny along the coast.

GUSTAV: Models continue to show a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, moving generally in the direction of the Louisiana coast. A strong short wave in the westerlies could bring a more northerly motion before landfall, and at this early phase it looks like the greatest risk of landfall will be from Morgan City, Louisiana to Dauphin Island, Alabama. And, once again the models are trending faster, suggesting landfall could come as early as Labor Day (Monday).

I strongly recommend that you watch the Weather Xtreme video to see all of the graphics and model output; the HWRF and GFDL models really ramp this thing up into a monster, but we remind everyone that there is very little skill in forecasting intensity of a hurricane several days in advance. Little things, like entrainment of dry air, stronger winds aloft, and variations in oceanic heat content can bring a significant change in the intensity of a tropical cyclone. These “little things” are not handled well far in advance.

We note the ECMWF brings Gustav to the Texas coast near Corpus Christi, and the GFS just has a weak system hanging around in the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. Possible, but both of these models are clear outliers.

BOTTOM LINE: It is very important to note that changes in the forecast are likely, but for now due to the general agreement in model trends residents along the Gulf Coast, especially from Morgan City to Gulf Shores, will need to make initial plans for a major hurricane. But, everyone all the way from Corpus Christi to Tampa will need to monitor the progress of Gustav closely. Landfall could come as early as Monday. We will have frequent updates here on the blog in coming days. As J.B. says, this thing will be busier than U.S. 280 at rush hour.

LOUISIANA PREPAREDNESS: This is a quote from Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal: “We are continuing to monitor this storm as state government agencies, including the State Police and the Louisiana National Guard, have been put on standby so we are ready to quickly respond if the storm heads our direction. GOHSEP officials are working with parish leaders to ensure they have their emergency plans in order, and I encourage all Louisiana families again to review their gameplans, go to GetAGameplan.org and make sure you have the supplies you need and a plan in place should a hurricane come to your area. The time to act is now. We all need to be prepared and ready to respond, from the citizen level and at every level of government.”

The level of readiness is certainly different this time, compared to the pre-Katrina days…

OTHER TROPICAL NOTES: The wave northeast of the Leeward Islands has a chance to become Tropical Storm Hanna in coming days, and there remains a chance this could be a player for the East Coast of the U.S. Another good looking wave is in the far eastern Atlantic.

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I will be speaking at Huffman Middle School this morning… then back into the office and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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