Wetter Days Ahead; Waiting For Fay

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

We expect the coverage of rain and storms to increase on a daily basis through next week, and we could see some big time rain totals before it is all over thanks to Tropical Storm Fay.

One thing we need to stress… really don’t focus on the center line when we are showing model output and other forecast graphics on the Weather Xtreme video… the rain mass associated with a tropical storm can be very large… over two hundred miles or greater. Much of the Deep South will get a big soaking from this system, and flash flooding problems are going to develop in some areas.

LATEST THINKING: The models are in much better agreement; the ECMWF has trended north, toward the GFS position. Looks like Fay will be moving westward along, or just north, of the Gulf coast through Sunday. All of the models are slowing Fay down again, coming to a stop, around Mobile Bay Sunday. This could bring rain amounts of 5 to 10 inches to the Gulf coast region (Gulf Shores, Pensacola, Destin) along with a significant risk of flooding. Winds with Fay, if this scenario is correct, will be in the 20 to 40 mph range for these coastal communities.

Here in North-Central Alabama, while showers are likely Saturday, the most widespread rain will most likely hold off until Sunday and Monday as Fay begins to drift slowly northward from a position over coastal Mississippi or Alabama. I still think much of the northern half of Alabama stands a chance of seeing 3 to 6 inches of rain from Fay, which is just what the doctor ordered for a region still recovering from a serious drought. I guess an isolated tornado will be possible, but the chance of severe weather with this dissipating tropical storm seems rather small up on this part of Alabama. Heavy rain and potential flooding will be our main issues.

The rain should begin to taper off Tuesday, with only a few scattered showers lingering by Wednesday.

You know the deal, all of this could change, so stay tuned to these discussions in coming days. I know many people have outdoor events planned this weekend, and slight adjustments in the track or timing of Fay will have a huge impact on our weather up here.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: The ECMWF takes the wave in the Central Atlantic and ramps it up to a tropical storm near the eastern tip of Cuba around the middle part of next week. Makes you wonder if we will have another Fay on our hands (this one will be called Gustav).

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.

I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… J.B. and the gang will keep the blog updated with fresh information until then!

Category: Uncategorized