TD#5 Forming?

Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance plane show signs that the low in the Gulf might be becoming a tropical depression.

The mission into Invest 91L (the code name for the system) is currently about 143 miles south of Pensacola. It is finding surface winds from the southeast at 34.5 mph. The extrapolated surface pressure so far (not at center) is 1010 mb. They will be looking for a defined center of circulation and from the wind reports, I think they may find it. Granted, they are still flying the first leg of the mission.

The center looks like it is about 150 miles or so south of Mobile. It is expected to move WSW through tonight and gradually turn to the WNW on Monday.

The morning GFS carried it closer to the Louisiana coast and weakens it. The overnight GFDL kept it about 75 miles off the Louisiana coast and carried it inland early Tuesday morning near Galveston/Houston as a strong tropical storm. There is fairly good consensus amount the models in this general trend. The GFDL strengthens it to a tropical storm Monday night.

It would be called Edouard.

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