Hot Weather Ahead

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What a day we had yesterday! Certainly not the best day for weather forecasters since nearly all wether sources that I’m familiar with missed the development of the severe storms across the Tennessee Valley that later became a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) that traveled all the way to southern Louisiana. One of the things about this business is that you have to pick yourself up after a bad day and keep plugging away. And I’ll do just that.

Looks like the focus for any storm development today will be across the southern half of Alabama, generally from Birmingham southward. The Nashville sounding from last night showed some drying above 700 millibars and I think that air will be affecting the northern portion of Alabama today.

The interesting thing to watch today and Monday will be the interaction of the upper low along the northern Gulf Coast and the MCC. Together with the nicely warm water of the Gulf, it looks like this thing could develop into a tropical storm over the next couple of days. Because of the proximity to land, it is not likely to develop fast or become especially strong.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are two disturbed areas in the Atlantic. One in the central Atlantic was looking pretty nice on satellite views, and it is like to recurve during the next couple of days staying well out to sea. The second, southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, is a bit lower in latitude, so projections from several models suggest a track that could bring it into the Caribbean in several days. That one is not very impressive on satellite and no immediate development is expected.

Back home, there is general persistence of a trough over the eastern half of the US, but for the next couple of days, the strong ridge to our west noses its way eastward, so we can expect hot days through the middle of the week. By Wednesday, the trough over the eastern half of the country should begin to deepen in response to a number of strong short waves passing through the flow. This will nudge the ridge back west and potentially bring a front into the area by next Thursday. The front is expected to hang around near the Gulf Coast next weekend.

This verges on voodoo country, so our weather next weekend will be highly dependent on the location of that boundary. Further into the future, the GFS maintains a trough pattern keeping us in seasonal heat with no sign of anything excessive.

Thanks for staying tuned to the Weather Xtreme Video. The next two editions on Monday and Tuesday will be posted a bit later than usual since I will be filling in for Jason both of those mornings. It’s pretty hard to record this AND do the weather for Good Morning Alabama. Have a great Sunday and God bless.

-Brian-

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