Dolly . . .

First, this note from Bill Crouch, NWS retired and now living in the Phoenix area. Bill served as the MIC, NWS, New Orleans at one time and is very interested (for obvious reasons)
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There is rapid expansion of the circulation around Dolly, but it is not well organized near the eye. Nevertheless, it is moving across an area very favorable for intensification and “westward moving storms in the gulf of Mexico have a strong tendency to intensify until they move onshore. The expansion of the circulation may help in holding a ridge north of the storm and building the ridge westward. Best track at this time moves the center onshore south of Brownsville Wednesday AM. Next look at 10 CDT tonight. –Bill Crouch
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Latest advisory from the Hurricane Center:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

…DOLLY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO
NORTHWARD…ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED
STATES…AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O’CONNOR. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA
PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO…AND FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O’CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES…765 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON
THIS TRACK…DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST…AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION…22.8 N…90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

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