Dolly is Main Interest

Mainly because she is a Gulf of Mexico tropical storm destined to become a hurricane. She is projected to become a hurricane later tomorrow as she reaches the West Central Gulf of Mexico.

The projected path takes Dolly inland later Wednesday night near the mouth of the Rio Grande separating Mexico and the USA. If that happens (and remember there can be track errors that far ahead) some of the main Texas towns that will be affected include:

Brownsville
McAllen
Edinburg
Port Isabel

The NWS official local forecast for places like Brownsville and McAllen includes possible hurricane conditions and heavy rain. That area could get well over five inches.

Here is the latest official advisory from the National Hurricane Center:
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

…DOLLY ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

AT 8 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DOLLY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 65 MILES…105 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE STORM MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…AND DOLLY COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON PRELIMINARY REPORTS
FROM NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…21.6 N…88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

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