Heat Levels Back Off By Wednesday

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A full menu on the weather buffet this morning…. first off lets deal with the Alabama heat.

Birmingham’s official high yesterday was a toasty 98 degrees; the actual range was from 95 at Anniston to 101 at Muscle Shoals. The bad news is that heat levels will be about the same today; the good news is that the heat will back off considerably by Wednesday as a nice upper trough forms over the eastern U.S. This is not going to be a long lasting heat wave.

A small pop up storm is possible today in a few spots, but most of the state will remain dry. The chance of a cooling afternoon storm is a little higher tomorrow, but they will remain scattered. While upper 90s are likely again tomorrow, the high Wednesday will be closer to 90 thanks to clouds and increasing numbers of showers and thunderstorms thanks to a front approaching from the north.

LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: Drier air tries to filter into Alabama Thursday and Friday; most likely the best coverage of scattered showers and storms on those days will be south of Birmingham, but drier air often has a very hard time pushing into Alabama in mid to late July. Highs will be in the low 90s, where they should be.

We will most likely roll with the standard summer forecast for Saturday and Sunday (partly sunny with scattered afternoon storms); highs will remain in the low 90s. The GFS continues to hint at drier air over North Alabama which would mean a mostly dry weekend for the northern half of the state, but lets wait a bit before we jump on that idea.

Another front pushes into the Tennessee Valley one week from today, and if that solution is correct that should bring a nice increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms again.

VOODOO LAND: A mean upper trough continues to show up over the eastern U.S. into early August; that should keep the heat in check with no serious long term heat waves expected.

TROPICS: Cristobal is moving parallel to the East Coast of the U.S… the main impact will be rough surf and rip tides along the upper Atlantic coast in coming days. Maximum sustained winds in this tropical storm are 50 mph, and little change in strength is expected today and tomorrow.

Dolly is the one to watch; it has been interacting with the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico overnight; it will move over the warm, open water of the Southwest Gulf of Mexico today, and I see no reason this won’t become a formidable hurricane by landfall, perhaps a category two or three. Dolly is headed for far South Texas, with potential landfall Wednesday night or early Thursday near Brownsville. Dolly will bring up to one foot of rain to the lower Rio Grande, with potential for significant storm surge damage along South Padre Island and the lower Texas coast.

And, a strong wave coming off the coast of Africa has a good chance of becoming Tropical Storm Edouard in coming days. No dull moments for our pals at NHC.

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I will be speaking to a summer group at Cahaba Heights Elementary School this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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