Watching The Eastern Gulf

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The convective mass in the eastern Gulf of Mexico holds the key to our weather late this week and over the weekend, and model madness makes it a very difficult forecast.

First off, in the short term, the northern half of Alabama should remain dry through tomorrow with hot afternoons and slowly rising humidity levels. Afternoon highs will be in the 91 to 95 degree range again, with the hottest readings over the western half of the state.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The 00Z GFS is back on a drier solution for Alabama, moving the deeper moisture with the Gulf system through Georgia and the Carolinas. However, the NAM takes the surface low to near Pensacola, with moisture moving up into Alabama. Since the GFS has produced this solution at times, we will go ahead and insert the chance of scattered showers and storms in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. Just keep in mind we will be fine tuning that forecast during the next day or so.

I do think it is safe to say the best chance of rain will be along and east of I-65 on Friday and Saturday. The farther west you go, the drier the conditions.

Can the Gulf system develop into a tropical depression? Yes, especially if the NAM is correct. But, if the circulation remains mostly over the Florida peninsula, then it won’t. The impact will be about the same one way or another. And, the heaviest rain today and tomorrow will be over that Florida peninsula.

OTHER TROPICAL ACTION: Bertha, the longest lived July tropical storm on record will slowly move out to sea in coming days. The strong wave approaching the Leeward/Windward islands looks pretty good on satellite images this morning; that one will move through the Caribbean in coming days. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and see the shear analysis across that region; looks like some tough going across the Central Caribbean, but conditions are much more favorable as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico. Will be interesting to see if this can survive.

And, another good looking wave will emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Still a little early for Cape Verde systems.

VOODOO LAND: Still no sign of anything out of the ordinary for the rest of July, and no sign of any excessive heat. That is a good thing.

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I will be speaking to the Inverness Rotary Club later today… then into the office and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

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