A Few Storms In The Days Ahead

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A complex set of weather features will impact Alabama during the next two days… here is the projected series of events after a review of the 12Z models…

TONIGHT: Thunderstorms will develop to the west, over Arkansas and Louisiana, and will move in our direction. Clouds increase across Alabama.

TOMORROW: Showers and storms should move into the state during the morning hours… at this point it looks like the first batch of storms will move through in the 6:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. time frame. Severe weather is not expected with this convection… and the sun might pop out at times tomorrow afternoon.

TOMORROW NIGHT: Another round of storms will form over Arkansas, and that activity should move into Alabama after midnight tomorrow night. Looks like the best chance of storms will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 8:00 a.m. Some of these could be strong to severe, and SPC keeps most of Alabama in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly for pre-dawn storms Saturday morning. Helicity values certainly suggest some potential for rotating storms, but surface based CAPE values are not too extreme, generally under 1,000 j/kg.

SATURDAY: This is the tricky part of the forecast. Those early morning storms should be east of the state by 8:00 a.m. The sun will break out by midday, and instability values will increase greatly during the day as a surface low passes eastward across Tennessee. One more batch of storms is possible Saturday afternoon, mainly east of I-65. But, there will be a strong capping inversion in place, which could prevent storms from forming over our state. The NAM/GFS seem to favor the cap holding, so for now we will mention only an outside risk of an additional storm Saturday afternoon east of I-65. But, if by chance they do develop, they could be severe.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Beautiful weather on these days… lots of sunshine with a high in the mid 60s on Sunday, with 70s on Monday.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS is now closing off the deep upper trough west of Alabama on Tuesday, which will delay the system for Alabama if that is the correct solution. We will certainly trend that way, and it could be Wednesday before the big batch of showers and storms moves in here. Wind fields will certainly support a chance of severe weather, but we really won’t feel comfortable dealing with specifics until late this weekend.

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