One More Great Day

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No weather problems for Alabama today… expect a delightful day with ample sunshine and a high up in the mid 70s. Parts of West Alabama could reach the upper 70s this afternoon. But, things begin to change late tonight as moist air surges northward into the state.

TOMORROW AND SATURDAY: Looks like we will have a batch of showers and storms at some point tomorrow. If you believe the GFS, the main chance of rain will come during the morning hours, but the NAM suggests the best rain opportunity will hold off until the afternoon. With such disagreement, we will just mention a good chance of developing showers and storms tomorrow, and we can fine tune the forecast later today after the 12Z runs are in the house.

A second round of showers and storms should impact Alabama late tomorrow night into Saturday, and SPC has defined a slight risk of severe weather for all of Alabama in association with these storms. Seems like the greatest window for severe weather will come from about midnight tomorrow night until 12:00 noon Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, the greatest severe weather risk seems to shift down into South Alabama. Quite frankly, model severe weather parameters look less impressive on the 00Z runs, but sufficient shear and instability values remain for a few severe storms.

The bottom line is that this event still has more questions than answers… hopefully we will have better resolution by the time I crank out the afternoon video later today. I know many people have outdoor plans tomorrow and Saturday. One or another, I sure don’t expect a total wash-out either day.

Sunday and Monday will be dry with a mostly sunny sky both days; look for a high in the mid 60s on Sunday, and close to 70 Monday. Winds will begin to increase Monday afternoon ahead of the next storm system.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS is showing a chance of strong to severe storms Tuesday night. Dynamics will be excellent, although the thermodynamics seem to be a little lacking at this point. But, that is five days away, and we really need to get to Sunday before we can have good clarity on this one. Drier and cooler air moves into the state on Wednesday, and the rest of the week looks dry at this point.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I will be speaking to the kids at First Baptist Church in Columbiana today… I will be in the office by early afternoon and the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!

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