Ominous Discussion…

Here is an excerpt from the evening forecast discussion from the NWS Jackson…it it very ominous. They are especially concerned about supercell storms developing in Central Louisiana, moving into Mississippi between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m. Their local studies indicate the potential for a tornado outbreak of historic proportions in their warning area.

These storms could move into Alabama during the evening…

I would expect a high risk area to our west on the upcoming Day 1 outlook which will be issued about midnight as well as a moderate risk for parts of Alabama. Tim Coleman has promised a detailed look around midnight on the blog…

000
FXUS64 KJAN 030243 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
835 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

…SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCLUDING TORNADOES…

.DISCUSSION…THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
LOOK VERY OMINOUS! NEW 00Z NAM HAS ARRIVED AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO THE PREV RUNS ON TIMING AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. IF ANY
THING…IT IS A TAD STRONGER AS THE SFC LOW IS DEEPER…THUS MAKING
THE LLJ A TAD STRONGER. I`M NOT SURPRISED THE SFC LOW IS A BIT
DEEPER AND FULLY EXPECT THE 00Z GFS TO FOLLOW SUIT. THIS IS TOO MUCH
OF A POWER HOUSE SYSTEM TO KEEP PRESSURE >1006-1009MB. I CAN EVEN
SEE PRESSURE GET LOWER THAN WHAT THE NAM/EURO ARE ADVERTISING WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO 1000MB ACROSS THE CWA.

I`M BECOMING VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE 21-00Z WINDOW AS THE NAM/GFS
ALL INDICATE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THINGS BETTER
WITH THE NAM B/C OF THE 21Z TIME STEP. THE MAIN THING IS THEY BOTH
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE/FRONT AND MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A LARGE FAMILY OF SUPERCELLS THAT
RAPIDLY TRACK NE INTO/ACROSS THE CWA. I DID A LOCAL SVR WX CHECKLIST
FOR MLU AT 21 USING GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GOT WHAT AMOUNTS TO THE
HIGHEST RANKING (EXTREME) WHICH IS RARE TO ACHIEVE (FEB 5 2008 ALSO
HIT IT) WHICH HISTORICALLY SUPPORTS A SIG RISK OF A HIGH END EVENT
WITH SIG TYPE TORNADOES. WHAT ALSO GETS ME CONCERNED IS WHERE THE
STORMS INITIATE…SW TO CENTRAL LA. THEY THEN WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ALMOST NNE INTO OUR W/SW CWA. THIS GIVES ANY SUPERCELL TIME TO
MATURE AND BECOME LONG LIVED. THOSE ARE THE WORST AS FEB 5 HAS
SHOWN. I CAN REALLY SEE A CORRIDOR ALONG THE TRACE AND ABOUT 50
MILES EITHER SIDE OF THAT BEING EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR SIG
TORNADOES BETWEEN 4-9 PM. MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HISTORIC
TYPE SVR WX DAY AND ALL NEED TO BE WX CONSCIOUS.

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