Sunny Sunday Leading to Stormy Monday

The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below and on iTune.

Running a tad slower this morning after the busy day yesterday. And I just noted that Tim Coleman has posted an excellent discussion on the severe potential for Monday night and early Tuesday, so be sure to scroll down to read that.

Today is going to be positively spring-like! The afternoon highs should climb into the lower and mid 70s with an abundant supply of sunshine. Some high clouds may come our way from the west, and the Tennessee Valley could see some clouds that were lurking over middle Tennessee. The only factor detracting from the beauty of the day will be an increasing southerly wind. We may see wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph this afternoon.

Monday will see the development of a surface low in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex. That surface low is projected to track across northern Mississippi and be located near Nashville by midnight Monday night. The surface low on this track puts a sizable portion of Alabama in the warm sector with temperatures climbing into the 70s and dew points approaching 60. There are still some model differences on how strong the instability will be. The SPC has defined a moderate risk area just to the west of Alabama covering a chunk of Mississippi with a slight risk for nearly all of Alabama. The threats will all be there since we have good wind shear for tornadoes, but the storms may be more linear (squall line) with embedded bows creating a big threat of widespread damaging wind. As is nearly always the case, the details as the overall weather system develops will allow more precise forecasts on what we can expect.

I think that the greatest threat for Central Alabama – and that’s from the Mississippi border to the Georgia border – will come after 4 pm through about noon on Tuesday. Timing is more conducive for less instability because we won’t have the sun’s heat to add energy to the atmosphere. But it also means that it will be dark and much harder to identify and see the threats.

Because this appears likely to be a night time event when a lot of people may be trying to sleep, it would be a good idea to make sure your weather radio is ready and set. Make sure the batteries are fresh. And really take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously.

The front and severe weather threat should exit Central Alabama by noon on Tuesday, but it does not appear that we will turn as cold as early forecasts indicated. The GFS is hold back the second, colder trough which puts Central Alabama under a southwesterly flow late Tuesday and much of Wednesday. The second upper trough gets the cold air here on Thursday as a surface low develops in the Gulf and moves across South Florida. With the surface low so far south, this should limit the threat of winter precipitation on Thursday night and early Friday but also limit any significant rain amounts.

Next weekend looks nice but not very warm. I expect to see lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s – at or slightly below where we should be in early March.

Long range forecasts suggest a weather system around the 14th of March with the possibility of a wet period as the front stalls out across the Southeast. That would certainly help our drought situation if it comes to pass, but that is a long way out for much detail.

The upcoming week will be busy not only with the severe weather threat but with lots of invitations to come to schools during Read Across America. I’m really looking forward to helping promote reading to our school children. I hope that you have a great Sunday. God bless.

-Brian-

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