Evening Look at Forecast
Some early thoughts on the forecast for next week…
…system may be slower…coming in mainly after midnight…which is better for us…
…instabilities do not look overly impressive. Lifted indices get to -1 or so. Dew points only make the upper 50s at BHM. CAPE values should be dropping through the night. But, the upper wind fields will be strong. And as we saw with last week’s system, a sudden injection of instability from a low level jet can get things going in a hurry.
…a strong squall line will be the main feature…with damaging winds a good bet along with the posisbility of a couple of spin up tornadoes overnight. Doesn’t look like a big outbreak, but could be potentially dangerous still.
…the good news is that most areas will get a good soaking as the system slows a bit…1.5 to 2 inches of rain will be likely…
…the upper low stays further to the north now…reducing the possibility of significant snow on Tuesday. Storms will still be moving out Tuesday morning. Daytime highs will be achieved early with falling or steady temperatures and a cold northwest wind. There will be some light rain during the day, but it should be rain, or perhaps a little mix as far south as Jasper and Cullman.
…we get a light freeze Tuesday night…
In a nutshell…still monitoring situation for Monday night…damaging winds will be biggest threat…
We will be looking at the 0z data, which is starting to roll in.
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