Rain Tomorrow; Strong Storms On Friday

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I am afraid that clouds are doing to hinder tonight’s viewing of the lunar eclipse… but they might be thin enough to see some of it. Here is a look at the specific times for Alabama.

RAIN RETURNS: Showers should move into Alabama late tonight, mainly after midnight, as a surface cold front moves into the state. That front will become stationary somewhere over Central Alabama tomorrow, setting the stage for overrunning tomorrow. That means a cloudy and cool day with periods of rain; the high for this part of the state (the I-20 corridor) should be in the 55 to 60 degree range. To the north, Huntsville will have a hard time getting out of the 40s, and to the south, Mobile could reach the low 70s.

STRONG STORMS FRIDAY: The surface boundary will lift northward tomorrow night, putting Alabama in the warm sector on Friday. And, with the approach of a strong short wave, showers and storms will increase again. Sure looks like we might have strong to severe storms around here by Friday afternoon… here are some severe weather parameters for Birmingham from the 12Z NAM, valid Friday afternoon:

Surface based CAPE: 663.0 j/kg
2M dewpoint: 63
Lifted index: -2.5
0 to 3 km helicity: 130.9
850 mb wind speed: 36 knots
850 mb wind speed: 71 knots

SPC has a severe weather risk on Friday for the southern quarter of the state, but don’t be surprised if they pull it northward. The main threat this time should be from damaging straight line winds, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

BENEFICIAL RAIN: The NAM is printing 1.72″ of rain for Birmingham tomorrow and Friday; the QPF guidance from HPC suggests some North Alabama communities could see three inches of rain. If we get these kind of numbers, then we will have a surplus of rain for the year by the weekend.

OUR WEEKEND: No rain over the weekend; the sky will clear on Saturday with a high in the upper 50s, and Sunday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the mid to upper 60s.

NEXT WEEK: Another dynamic storm system will roll into Alabama early next week; the 12Z GFS continues the idea of strong to severe thunderstorms from around 3:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon Tuesday. Hopefully with the storms coming through during the morning hours that will help reduce the chance of a major severe weather problem, but the dynamics look excellent with this system. We will need to keep a close eye on it.

INTO THE LAND OF VOODOO: Doesn’t make too much sense trying to pin down specific storms here in this kind of pattern, but the GFS is advertising good rain/storm events around March 4 and then again March 7. There won’t be too many dull moments around the weather office for the next few weeks.

STORM ALERT 2008: Our annual severe weather awareness tour comes to Lineville tomorrow night; we will be at Lineville High School for a show that begins at 7:00… the doors open at 5:00. Come early to meet the ABC 33/40 Weather Team, and get some cool free stuff.

SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase a top of the line Midland NOAA Weather Radio at any Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Get more information here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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