A Big Warm-Up Today

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We are well below freezing this morning… our Skywatcher in Northeast Etowah County reports 16 degrees; while our Hamilton Skywatcher checks in with 17. Most of the official reporting stations are somewhere between 19 and 24.

Despite the frigid conditions this morning, look for a big warm-up today with maximum available sunshine and a high in the 56 to 60 degree range. Some communities will see a 40 degree rise from the morning low to the afternoon high.

TOMORROW AND SATURDAY: I really think we can back off on any risk of showers tomorrow night and Saturday, based on model trends. The big storm, which is getting its act together over the Southwest U.S., will take its time in moving out of there, and as we have been pointing out here in recent days, it looks like the big rain/storm day will be on Sunday.

A surface front will slip into Alabama tomorrow night, but with minimal moisture the chance of rain looks relatively small at this point. Temperatures should back off a few degrees Saturday, but I am not sure the change will be really noticeable. The NAM is way too aggressive with colder air on Saturday; it suggests a high in Birmingham of only 49 degrees. The GFS, on the other hand, shows a high of 61. For now we have a high in the upper 50s in our forecast. And, once again, I really think we can totally remove the chance of rain on Saturday.

SUNDAY: Concern is growing over the possibility of a severe weather outbreak Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. The 06Z GFS continues to trend farther to the north with the surface low associated with the upper trough (which will be phasing with the northern stream); the low is now showing up just south of St. Louis, which will put Alabama in the warm sector of the developing storm. Wind fields will be screaming, and strongly suggest severe weather here. The big question, as usual with these early season events, involves the degree of instability. SPC has defined the severe weather risk of Sunday for the southern half of the state, but I believe they will have to pull that risk area farther to the north, maybe all the way to the Tennessee state line. At this point it looks like the greatest risk of severe weather here will come from 1:00 p.m. until 9:00 p.m. Sunday, and there will be potential for damaging wind and a few isolated tornadoes based on very high helicity values that will be in place.

Rainfall totals on Sunday should average one inch, with isolated amounts to two inches.

ANOTHER COLD AIR SHOT: Monday sure looks like it will be like yesterday. We will have a hard time getting out of the 30s with an icy wind, and few early morning flurries are possible. We won’t play the MOS game this time; those numbers on Monday from the GFS look way too low (like they were yesterday). A hard freeze is likely by Tuesday morning.

LAND OF VOODOO: Another big system shows up around February 25, but there isn’t much reason to try and be specific in this kind of pattern. Bottom line is that the weather looks like it will remain active and very changeable through the rest of the month.

STORM ALERT 2008: Don’t forget, there is no Storm Alert 2008 tonight… the next show will be one week from tonight down in Clay County at Lineville High School.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I will be speaking this morning at Crestline Elementary School in Mountain Brook… then back into the office this afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30. Enjoy the day!

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