Good Rain Event Ahead…
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THIS AFTERNOON: It has been a mix of clouds, light rain, and some sun across Alabama this afternoon. Most of the sunshine over the past few hours has been over the northwest counties of the state, where Muscle Shoals soared to 80 degrees at 2:00. Most other places are in the 70s, and most of the scattered light rain is east and south of Birmingham at mid-afternoon.
We will maintain just an outside risk of a shower tonight, but places won’t get much rain.
TO THE NORTH: Severe storms are producing possible tornadoes over parts of Indiana… as I write this the Lafeyette area is under a tornado warning, including Purdue University. A tornado watch is in effect for parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio until 8:00 p.m. tonight.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: Look for a general increase in the number of showers and storms as dynamic forcing approaches from the west. There is sufficient instability and helicity for a few strong thunderstorms, but the best severe weather parameters remain west of Alabama, where SPC maintains a standard “slight risk” of severe weather tomorrow over much of Mississippi and Louisiana. If we do had strong storms here, the best chance of them would come tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Long time readers know that when it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected, so we will watch the radar closely, but again for now a major severe weather issue is not expected. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and maps.
HOW MUCH RAIN? The 12Z NAM is printing 0.78″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is more aggressive with 1.08″ The RPM shows a strip of heavier rain from near Anniston to north of Atlanta, hinting at 3 inches there. The bottom line is that this should be our biggest rain event here since September 20.
COLDER THURSDAY: The sky becomes mostly sunny on Thursday as colder air rolls into the state; the high should be close to 60 with a cool north breeze. Then, we head down into the mid 30s early Friday, with potential for a freeze for the colder pockets around here. Friday will be sunny with a high in the low 60s.
WEEKEND PEEK: The weekend for now looks dry with a partly sunny sky Saturday and Sunday and a slow warming trend. We should reach the mdi 60s Saturday, and low 70s Sunday. Moisture levels will increase, but with no dynamic forcing we won’t mention the risk of any rain over the weekend.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: Still looks like a warm ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will keep us mostly dry Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Showers should move into the state Wednesday, and possibly into Thanksgiving Day, but for now it doesn’t look like a severe weather threat, and the rain probably won’t be too heavy due to the persistent ridge. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record tonight’s show at 8:30 p.m. CST… you can listen live via uStream here.
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I had a great time today visiting the kids and adults at Trinity Christian Academy in Oxford… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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