Mild, Breezy Monday
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MID 70S TODAY: The average high for Birmingham on November 14 is 65… we should be about ten degrees above that level today, with mid 70s likely along with a south breeze and a generally cloudy sky. Ridging over the Gulf of Mexico should keep most of the state dry, with only an outside risk of a shower this afternoon or tonight.
DECENT RAIN EVENT AHEAD: An upper trough coming out of the Southwest U.S. should bring some beneficial rain to Alabama beginning tomorrow afternoon… looks like the best chance of showers and storms will come from midday tomorrow through midday Wednesday.
See the Weather Xtreme video for details on strong storm potential… we are looking at surface based CAPE values in the 250-500 j/kg range Wednesday morning at the time of the best dynamic lift, with marginal helicity values that would support some sustained updrafts. Bottom line is that we might have a few strong storms around, but a major severe weather problem is not expected, and SPC does not have any part of Alabama in a severe weather risk for now. The rain will move out of the state late Wednesday as a cold front sweeps through.
The 00Z NAM is printing 0.76″ for Birmingham… and if that verifies it will be our first rain event with more than 1/4 inch since September 20. We should note the GFS is more aggressive with 1.19″ for Birmingham.
COLDER BY THURSDAY: Thursday will feature a clearing sky along with a cool north breeze. The high will be close to 60, and by Friday morning lows will be in the 30-35 degree range with a clear sky. Friday looks sunny and cool with low 60s by mid afternoon.
WEEKEND PEEK: Expect a slow warming trend over the weekend with a slow return of moisture; for now the chance of rain looks too small to mention in the forecast, so expect a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday, with mid 60s Saturday and low 70s Sunday, very similar to this past weekend.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: Again, see the video for the details… but for now it looks like the best chance of rain will remain northwest of Alabama for the first half of the week thanks to a persistent upper ridge over the Gulf Coast region. For Wednesday November 23, the big travel day, rain and storms look likely from near Dallas/Fort Worth up to around Cincinnati. Then, on Thanksgiving Day, a band of weakening showers will move into Alabama. Temperatures next week look pretty mild with the Gulf ridge keeping the cold air north of here.
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I will be over in Oxford this morning speaking at Trinity Christian Academy… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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