Dry Weather With A Slow Warming Trend

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THIS AFTERNOON: Ah, the mystery of departing low stratocumulus clouds on the back side of a departing upper low. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the visible satellite look at the clouds that are still hanging around this afternoon over parts of Central and East Alabama. Where the clouds are still in place, temperatures are in the 60s, but where the sun has been shining, readings are up in the 70s.

REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: Looks like a calm period, with partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights, and a slow warming trend. We will reach the upper 70s tomorrow, followed by low 80s. Highs over the weekend will be in the mid 80s as we get back close to average values for September in Alabama. And, while we stay calm around here, eyes will be on the Atlantic basin.

TROPICAL TRIO: Katia and Maria won’t impact us, but the one that should be called Nate is one to watch. Let’s take them one at a time.

KATIA: Now a minimal hurricane thanks to dry air entering the circulation, this hurricane will make the classic Atlantic recurve in coming days between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast. No threat to land.

MARIA: The newest tropical storm in the Central Atlantic looks like it will follow a path very close to Katia. Wind shear and upwelling should keep this one from getting much stronger; NHC keeps Maria a tropical storm for the next five days, and the GFS continues to suggest this will recurve will east of the U.S. cast.

NATE? The disturbance in the far Southwest Gulf of Mexico should become Tropical Storm Nate in coming days. With hardly any steering currents, Nate should move slowly and erratically over the next five days. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and details; in the longer range now the ECMWF is in agreement with the GFS, and drifts this system into Mexico with no threat to the U.S.

However, the 12Z run of the Canadian moves Nate rapidly to the Gulf Coast near Mobile Bay late in the weekend with more wind and rain for Alabama Sunday night and Monday. But, the GEMS is an outlier and rejected.

I do believe there is a very real chance that Nate will move northeast in our general direction, but it will be a week or so before it impacts Alabama, if it happens at all. Is is simply too early to make the call, but if you have a cruise or beach trip lined up, keep an eye on developments in the Gulf.

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Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather