Hurricane Hunters Checking Disturbance

GFS output for next Saturday morning

Hurricane Hunter crews were deployed to St. Croix in the Virgin Islands yesterday in anticipation of several missions into what promises to be Hurricane Emily.

The incipient disturbance is a low pressure system that is about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Showers associated with the system have really become more concentrated this morning and a tropical depression will likely form this afternoon.

Waters are warm, wind shear is light, and the system Is free of any Saharan Air Layer dry air, so it should intensify steadily, becoming a Tropical Storm (acquiring the name Emily) and a hurricane pretty quickly over the northeastern Caribbean.

The GFS had been predicting a path over Puerto Rico and then a north northwestward course to the east of the Bahamas. Much more worrisome would be a more northwesterly course over the Bahamas that could mean a significant threat to South Florida or the Carolinas later this week or next weekend.

The morning run of the GFS has introduced that idea officially, indicating that Emily will miss the first East Coast trough and then move slowly northwest. It still does not predict a U.S. landfall, letting Emily get picked up by a second East Coast trough that should start forming late next weekend.

It will be interesting to watch.

Category: Tropical