Showers Continue – Tropics Heating Up

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The upper ridge continues to keep Central Alabama in a pattern of daily showers and that is not likely to change much during the next couple of days. Meanwhile, the tropics are heating up as the calendar edges toward the climatological peak of the Atlantic tropical storm season.

With the upper ridge just to the west of us, we remain in a pattern that will see scattered to numerous showers for the weekend and into Monday. But as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday, showers will be waning as the ridge builds back stronger and we see some slightly drier air manages to make its way into the Southeast US. By Friday and into next weekend, however, there will be some short waves riding across the top of the ridge which will bring back better chances for showers on a daily basis.

Also, we’ll have to be watching the future trajectory of what may be Emily. The NHC is watching an area of cloudiness about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Conditions are favorable for development of this system. Computer guidance is fairly well clustered through about 72 or 96 hours before the various models diverge on their tracks. The system should move just south of Puerto Rico and affect Hispaniola. The GFS picks up the system by late in the week and turns it out into the Atlantic before it gets very close to the US. I would not be surprised to see this system named in the next 24 to 36 hours.

Rainfall across Central Alabama will continue to remain spotty due to the nature of showers. Variability in showery patterns is always amazing to me. And the SPC continues to be watchful for severe storms on the northern periphery of the upper ridge with the focus today on Minnesota.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS suggests a trough over the eastern US by mid August. That would be a welcome pattern bringing some cooler and perhaps less humid air to us. But we know how fickle those long range predictions can be, so we watching and perhaps hoping for it.

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Thanks for staying tuned. I will not be generating a Weather Xtreme Video tomorrow morning as I begin a long day of travel to head back to Central Alabama from Chicago. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather