Don Stays Far To The South

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DON STAYS WEAK: There has been no real change in Tropical Storm Don overnight… in fact the system looks less organized this morning in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. Not much change in the overall idea with this one; models have shifted a bit to the left, NHC has adjusted slightly to the south on their track, and Don is expected to make landfall on the middle or lower Texas coast as a tropical storm late tomorrow night, soon after midnight.

Still looks like the positives will outweigh the negatives with Don as beneficial rain is very possible for much of South Texas this weekend. Still, all interests along the Texas coast south of Galveston Bay will need to keep an eye on this one for possible surprises in intensity changes. But for now we clearly do not expect Don to reach hurricane strength.

THE ALABAMA STORY: Moisture levels will be higher today across the northern half of the state, so we expect a general increase in the number of scattered showers and storms this afternoon and early tonight. The high should be in the low to mid 90s, much like yesterday before the storms develop and cool things down.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Not much reason to depart from the standard summer formula. I know you get tired of us saying the same thing, but this is the time of the year when the weather doesn’t change very much. Hot, hazy, and humid with the risk of a shower or thunderstorm each day in scattered spots, mostly in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will hold in the low to mid 90s.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS remains very consistent in the idea of drier and hotter weather Tuesday through Thursday of next week, advertising highs in the upper 90s with very few showers and storms as the upper ridge gets stronger. We do note the GFS has been too hot pretty much all summer with their model output statistics, so we will keep highs in the mid 90s, but will adjust the forecast for storms to become more isolated.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms along the Gulf Coast (from Panama City west to Gulf Shores) today with only a limited amount of sunshine. Then, look for increasing amounts of sunshine and fewer showers and storms tomorrow through Sunday. Highs will be in the mid 80s today, and in the 87-90 degree range over the weekend. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning is 84 degrees.

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I will be doing a weather program for the kids this morning at Mountain Brook Baptist Church… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: heat, storms

Category: Alabama's Weather