Midday Update

Back from a great trip out to Oak Grove… be sure and watch for those kids on ABC 33/40 News today at 5:00 on the KIDCAM!

I will have the full discussion and Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30… but here are some midday notes:

*The 12Z model runs confirm the heaviest snow should in south of Birmingham. The original idea presented here yesterday morning; the axis of the heaviest snow from Livingston to Clanton to Roanoke, still looks very good to me. This is the sweet spot at the northern periphery of the moisture field, and the southern periphery of the deeper cold air with thickness values that support snow. Even using the “top down” approach of forecasting snow, this will be an all snow event for Central Alabama tomorrow.

*The moisture surge looks really good off to the west, into North Louisiana. Keep watching the radars and satellite images to the west as this storm system develops. That will tell the story.

*A quick check of the 12Z NAM data extraction for Birmingham shows exactly two inches of snow for the city (0.20″ liquid), with the heavier totals to the south. The GFS is very similar, with 0.18″ liquid, or about 1.8 inches of snow.

*The liquid for Montgomery is a whopping 1.23″. That doesn’t mean Montgomery will get 12 inches of snow, but I do think they will have some on the ground by tomorrow afternoon. Maybe more than Birmingham.

*I am beginning to get the idea somebody in that Livingston to Clanton to Roanoke zone could get more than 4 inches of snow.

BOTTOM LINE: No change needed in our ongoing forecast. Here is the exact wording from our early morning discussion:

In the general area south of Birmingham and north of Montgomery, that Livingston to Clanton to Roanoke axis, snow totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible. This “sweet spot” will be only about 30 to 50 miles wide; that is usually the case with Gulf lows that produce snow in Alabama.

To the north, along the I-20/59 corridor, including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadsden, and Anniston, snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible. The snow will cut off around U.S. 278, and north of that line, from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden, there will be little snow and no accumulation is expected across the Tennessee Valley.

Along the U.S. 80 corridor, Demopolis to Montgomery to Opelika, one inch of snow could accumulate; possibly two inches around Auburn/Opelika. I don’t expect any accumulation below Montgomery, although snow flakes could be found over South Alabama by the time the event winds down.

Again, the full discussion and video will be up here by 3:30…. and sooner posts if needed.

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