Watching For A Winter Storm

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As you can see from the overnight posts and comments, there is little sleep on these days among meteorologists, and those who love weather. As I say, “sleep is for sissies”. Moving on….

WINTER STORM WATCH: Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion… the NWS has posted a winter storm watch for North-Central Alabama for late tonight and tomorrow. The 06Z model runs are in, and the ole NAM and the GFS are getting along better, making for a higher confidence forecast.

HOW MUCH? I think most of you can now see why we have the “sweet spot” for snow south of Birmingham… in our initial forecast for this event yesterday we drew the line for the potential axis of heavier snow from Livingston to Clanton to Roanoke. I still think that looks good; that is where the moisture will be relatively deep, and the cold air sufficient for snow. The deepest moisture will be south of Montgomery, but of course the cold air will be late to the party down there, and there should be a few snow flakes over South Alabama before the day is done, but no accumulation. So, lets review our thoughts on accumulation potential first.

In the general area south of Birmingham and north of Montgomery, that Livingston to Clanton to Roanoke axis, snow totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible. This “sweet spot” will be only about 30 to 50 miles wide; that is usually the case with Gulf lows that produce snow in Alabama.

To the north, along the I-20/59 corridor, including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadsden, and Anniston, snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible. The snow will cut off around U.S. 278, and north of that line, from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden, there will be little snow and no accumulation is expected across the Tennessee Valley.

Along the U.S. 80 corridor, Demopolis to Montgomery to Opelika, one inch of snow could accumulate; possibly two inches around Auburn/Opelika. I don’t expect any accumulation below Montgomery, although snow flakes could be found over South Alabama by the time the event winds down.

TIMING: The models are a tad slower. Looks like we might have a rain/snow mix after midnight, with the precipitation becoming all snow by daybreak tomorrow as the Arctic air moves southward. Snow is likely tomorrow morning, tapering off by midday or early afternoon.

TRAVEL: With temperatures expected to hold in the 29 to 34 degree range much of the day, there will be some icy travel in spots. Not widespread, but there will be areas where driving will be come hazardous. Initially many roads will be just wet, even with snow falling. But keep in mind we are headed for the teens tomorrow night, so any liquid on roads and bridges will become ice patches. If you need to travel anywhere tomorrow or tomorrow night, plan on taking it slow and easy, and give yourself extra time to get there.

GOOD THINGS: I will promise no school tomorrow (hey, tomorrow is Saturday!). There will be no freezing rain with this system, so no problems with power outages are expected. And, this is in no way, shape, or form in the same league as the Blizzard of 1993! Not even in the same universe.

As always with any winter weather threat in Alabama, some will be delighted, others disappointed in what happens. And, forecast changes can and will happen, so stay tuned for updates today. You know, there are only two kinds of people who forecast the weather in Alabama: fools, and strangers. Since I have lived here most of my life, you know which category I fall in.

But confidence is pretty high in the solution we have outlined above.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND: We are forecasting an average low of 18 Sunday morning, but where there is a good snow cover, some spots could drop down to 10 degrees. Sunshine returns in full force Sunday with a high in the 40s. Next week looks cool and unsettled, with some rain at times Tuesday through Thursday.

The long range pattern looks colder than normal through early February; watch the Weather Xtreme for more about the land of voodoo.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I am headed out to Oak Grove Elementary School this morning… I always enjoy visiting that school, and it brings to mind the fact that we are close to the 10th anniversary of the F5 tornado that destroyed the old Oak Grove school on April 8, 1998, and killed 32 people in Jefferson County.

The blog, as you might expect, will be buzzing today… we do thank you for being with us and participating. J.B., Tim Coleman, and the gang will have updates through the day, and my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30!

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