Significant Winter Storm Threat Ahead

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We laid out our preliminary winter storm idea this morning, and nothing will change on this update. Here is the way we see it for now (this is directly from our mid-morning post)

FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain should move into the state between 6:00 p.m. and 12:00 midnight Friday night. The rain should change to snow in the 10:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m. time frame as the Arctic air dives southward.

SATURDAY: Snow should be widespread across the central part of Alabama from 3:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon. Most likely, there will be about a 50 mile wide band of heavy snow, with potential for 3 to 6 inches. First guess is that the center of the axis of heavier snow will be from roughly Livingston to Clanton to Roanoke. There will be potential of 1 to 3 inches of snow on either side of that heavier snow band. By the time you get to the Tennessee Valley, snow should be light and spotty.

For the I-20 corridor, this looks like a 2 to 4 inch kind of snow… for places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston. Snow should accumulate as far south as Montgomery, and a few snow flakes could be found before the day is done deep into South Alabama.

NOTES: We are talking all snow here, NOT freezing rain (no ice storm). Freezing rain events are the ones that usually mean power outages, not snow events. The snow has to be extremely wet and heavy for widespread power outages. Can’t rule it out, but again, this is not ice. Just snow.

Travel problems could be very significant Saturday morning, unlike yesterday’s event with temperature above freezing when there were very few ice issues.

MORE BULLET POINTS….

*The 18Z run of the NAM is in the house, and confirms this forecast. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics.

*We are not forecasting freezing rain, but mostly snow with this event. Most extended power outages around here come from ice storms; we usually do very well with electrical service during snow events.

*This is not another “Blizzard of 1993”. With that storm we had hurricane force winds and some isolated snow totals to two feet. These storms are not in the same league.

*Travel issues could linger into Saturday night and Sunday morning due to the very cold air moving in here over the weekend. We will be in the teens Sunday morning, and if we have a good snow cover, we will be in the single digits.

*There will be no weather problems during the day tomorrow; the day will be mostly cloudy with a high in the low 50s. Most of the problems will come after midnight tomorrow night.

*The prime window for snow will come from around 3:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon on Saturday.

*Sunday will be sunny with moderating temperatures; we should recover into the low to mid 40s by afternoon.

OTHER NOTES: I have been getting e-mails from folks telling me that other TV stations are not forecasting snow late tomorrow night and Saturday; as you know we are very transparent here and let you in on our thinking through the entire forecast process. You will need to e-mail the other folks to see why they disagree, if that is the case!

And, of course, this is a winter storm threat in Alabama. Inevitably, some will be thrilled with the snow they get, others disappointed. And, there will be adjustments to the forecast as we get closer to the event. But, what you see here is what I think will happen with all of the information we have in house. Stay tuned to the blog for updates.

LIVE STREAM TONIGHT: I will be doing a special weather update tonight on our live stream at 7:00. Plan on joining us; just click on the “watch live 24/7” button on our main weather page on abc3340.com.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like some rain by Tuesday… watch the Weather Xtreme video for more on long range ideas.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I sure enjoyed seeing the third graders today at Cherokee Bend Elementary School in Mountain Brook today; be looking for them on the KIDCAM at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News… we will have updates as needed tonight, and again join us at 7 on the live stream. The next Weather Xtreme video will be ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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