Winter Storm Analysis

First of all, the models are in fairly good agreement that a surface low will form along the stalled front in the Gulf of Mexico late Friday, bringing precipitation into parts of Alabama. With marginally cold air in place and colder air coming in toward the end of this potential winter event, temperatures should be cold enough for any precipitation in the Birmingham area, at least after 6 am Saturday, to be in the form of snow. The main question is the northward extent and the amount of precipitation. Tne track of the low pressure center is the most important factor…and that will be determined partially by where the front is in the northern Gulf when it gets going (lows tend to follow fronts), and how strong the low is. A stronger low will have more precipitation and may move slightly more northward, as warm advection ahead of it would move the front it’s following northward. I will actually list snowfall amounts for BHM, directly deduced from the models.

The 18 UTC NAM is still coming in very aggressively, with the low moving from south of New Orleans to south Georgia. This model really shows a major winter storm…maybe the largest snowfall amounts since 1993. Snow: 5″-9″, depending on what time changeover occurs.

The 12 UTC GFS has shifted a little bit north with its low track, and now shows precipitation as far north as BHM. Snow: 0.5″.

The 12 UTC Canadian has changed little from the 00 UTC, with a low tracking from south of Biloxi to Savannah. Snow: 3″.

The 12 UTC NOGAPS keeps the precipitation near the Gulf Coast, but it has seemes to have a dry bias in some systems lately. Snow: 0″.

The 12 UTC UKMET has its low much further south. If this model is right, a dusting of snow is possible in Montgomery, but flurries only for BHM.

The 12 UTC NGM shows a much broader low over the northern Gulf. Snow amount: 1″.

The JMA shows 2″.

So, in summary, looking at 7 computer models here, we have snow amounts of: 5-9″, 0.5″, 3″, 0″, 0″, 1″, 2″.

The event will already be starting tomorrow, with the low starting to develop, so we’ll be able to know more then. But, this system has the potential to bring a significant snow event to BHM Friday night and Saturday. Even 1 or 2″, with temps in the 20s coming in behind it, could seriously impair travel Saturday and Sunday. Definitely one to watch. If my Granny were still with us, I’d tell her to go on to the store this afternoon to beat the possible crowd tomorrow.

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