Summertime Weather Ahead

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Don’t be looking for much change in the overall weather pattern for the near future. As the GFS was suggesting about a week ago, the upper ridge has developed some weakness resulting in scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. With the heat expected to remain in the lower and mid 90s and with the main ridge axis off to our west primarily, this pattern is likely to keep us in those scattered thunderstorms for the next week.

There is only one possibility for some decrease in storms. On Monday and Tuesday, the ridge builds into Alabama a tad stronger. While we still remain on the edge of the ridge which means we probably can’t take showers out of the forecast completely, the stronger influence of the ridge should produce a reduction in showers. But this influence of the ridge only lasts those two days.

By Wednesday, a fairly strong short wave moving through the Great Lakes region will dampen the ridge again and force it back to the west a bit. This opens the way for scattered shower chances once again. And we stay in this pattern through next Saturday.

SPC continues to outlook an area to our northwest for a slight risk of severe weather along with an area over Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The primary threat of severe storms remains well off to the northwest of Alabama on Day 2. As we’ve seen over the last couple of days, some of our storms can become marginally severe with damaging wind the primary threat and large hail a secondary threat.

Rainfall will continue to be rather spotty due to the overall nature of the convection. Those that do get under a thunderstorm will get a nice dousing, but as you see in the video, while I got the influence temperature-wise of two storms, I got no rain in my bucket!

A disorganized area of showers over the Bahamas is being watched, but conditions do not appear favorable for any significant development over the next couple of days.

Looking further ahead, there does not appear to be much change in the pattern for week 2 as the ridge ebbs and flows. There does appear to be a reasonably good shot at some enhanced rain chances around the 24th with a substantial short wave.

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My next Weather Xtreme Video will be coming from the beach. Look for it around 8 am or so on Sunday morning. I hope that you have a great weekend and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather