Major Tornado Outbreak To The West

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HIGH RISK: SPC maintains a high risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across much of Oklahoma, along with adjacent parts of Texas and Kansas. Supercell storms are firing over Oklahoma about 50 miles west of Oklahoma City, and tornado warnings have been issued. KWTV is showing a multiple vortex tornado at 3:30 near Longdale, OK.

HERE AT HOME: No weather issues through tomorrow. Most places are in the 86-89 degree range this afternoon, and we expect the same tomorrow.

TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW: SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather from near Shreveport to Indianapolis tomorrow, with a slight risk down into the far northwest corner of Alabama. This activity should begin to move into Alabama late tomorrow night into Thursday morning as the upper ridge breaks down.

THURSDAY: A review of 12Z model data suggests no major change in our thinking. No doubt there will be some of strong to severe storms across our state with a favorable synoptic pattern, but the actual threat will all depend on the mesoscale features.

The RPM continues to suggest an MCS (mesoscale thunderstorm system) will move into Alabama at some point early Thursday morning, with the risk of hail and strong straight line winds.

It remains to be seen if the air can recover for another round of storms Thursday afternoon. The good news is that the 12Z NAM still shows STP (significant tornado parameter) values below 1, and instability values are marginal (surface based CAPEs of 1,500 j/kg or lower).

BOTTOM LINE: We will continue to forecast a good chance of showers and storms Thursday, possibly beginning early Thursday morning. Strong to severe storms are possible, with the main risk coming from hail and strong straight line winds. We can’t rule out the chance of a tornado, but the risk looks small for now. On the positive side, rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely.

FRIDAY: We will hang on to some risk of a stray shower Friday morning, but the upper trough will slowly move east and weaken as an upper ridge begins to build across Alabama and the Gulf Coast states.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: We kick off summer with a hot and dry weekend. Highs will be in the upper 80s Saturday… close to 90 Sunday… and in the low 90s Monday. Days will feature a good supply of hazy sunshine, and nights will be fair. The hot, dry weather should continue into the middle part of next week.

AT THE BEACH: We expect sunny days and fair nights through Thursday; a few widely scattered showers and storms could show up Friday and Saturday, but even on those days you can expect 6 to 8 hours of sunshine. Then, dry and warm weather is the story Sunday and Monday. Highs throughout the week should be in the low 80s, and the ocean water is running in the upper 70s along the Alabama Gulf Coast.

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I enjoyed meeting with the “Hilltoppers” at First United Methodist Church of Talladega… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: warm

Category: Alabama's Weather