Alabama Weather Update 2 p.m.

Skies are partly cloudy and it is warm across Central Alabama early this afternoon. Temperatures are in the lower and middle 80s.

Scattered thunderstorms were increasing across eastern Mississippi. The strongest one was moving north northeast into Noxubee County MS. It will brush northwestern Pickens County on its way to Lamar and Marion Counties.

They extend back across I-20 from Forest to Meridian. Others are southeast of Jackson. Some of these could affect Pickens and Fayette Counties.

The SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion for the storms, citing the instability that is now running 1000-1500 j/kg across the region. The good news is that the lapse rates are weak and the best upper level flow is back to the west in the vicinity of the cold front, which is over Northwest Mississippi.

The storms do have tops around 40,000 feet. They will generate lightning, heavy rain, maybe some small hail and gusty winds. We can’t rule out a couple of them briefly becoming severe with strong wind gusts and close to severe hail. But the tornado threat is non-existent. The limited coverage and marginal severe threat is precluding the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

Showers and storms will affect parts of the area west of I-59 in Alabama, mainly west and north of Birmingham and Tuscaloosa through about 8 p.m. tonight. More showers will form over Northwest and West Alabama late this evening and continue through the overnight hours. There could be some strong storms and heavy rain from Nashville down into Northwestern Mississippi during the pre-dawn hours.

This activity will weaken as it pushes into Northwest Alabama before sunrise. Additional showers/storms will form over Mississippi and will move move across areas west of I-59 during the morning hours as the front makes its final push through the state. The front should be east of Birmingham by lunchtime and move into Georgia by evening. As it does, showers and storms will end from the west. The storms are not expected to be strong.

Rainfall amounts look to be lighter now, around one third of an inch in the I-59 corridor, with heavier amounts the further northwest that you go. The Shoals area could see around an inch, with one half to three quarters of an inch over western sections of the state.

Cooler air will follow the front. As skies clear Tuesday night, most spots will drop into the 40s and a few locations will even register in the 30s!

Wednesday will be a fresh feeling day with near total sunshine and highs struggling to reach the 70F degree mark along with a breezy north wind. We’ll be back in the 40s Wednesday night with perfect weather on tap for Thursday and Friday. Highs will range between 76-82F. Next chance of rain comes late on Sunday.

Category: Alabama's Weather