Rain Edging Closer but Still Dry
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A stationary front was situated across Tennessee from Nashville to Memphis and back toward the ArkLaTex, but while that front will provide more unneeded rain to the Mid-South area, we are expected to stay dry today. We will be seeing more clouds than we have for the past several days, though, which will help to keep temperatures from climbing high than about 83 or 84. Though the front edges closer on Monday, we should be mostly dry though the forecast will have to mention a small chance for showers due to the gradual destabilization of the atmosphere as dew points climb into the lower 60s.
Finally Tuesday the upper trough that has been slow to move will push through bringing the front into and across Alabama. This will make for a rainy, stormy day, however, I am not expecting any widespread severe weather problems. An isolated thunderstorm could approach severe limits with the main threat in the form of hail and damaging wind. But nothing like what we saw last week. Rainfall amounts on Tuesday should be in the half inch to three quarters of an inch range across much of Central Alabama with some one inch amounts across the Tennessee River Valley.
With the trough off on the East Coast on Wednesday, we’ll come under northwesterly flow which will clear the sky and bring in much drier and cooler air. We’ll be dipping back into the 40s for lows on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Look for highs both of those days to remain in the 70s.
Good weather is likely to stick with us into the weekend with one possible exception. A fast moving short wave in the northern stream will move by on Friday. I don’t think it will be a big problem, but there is a very small outside chance it could generate a shower. I’m going to leave rain out of the forecast for Friday right now, but we need to watch to see how strong that short wave will be.
That certainly clears the way for another nice weekend next weekend. And a peek into voodoo country suggest a possible rain event around the 12th, but the overall upper air pattern suggests a pleasant, somewhat coolish, mid-May.
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Category: Alabama's Weather