Significant Severe Weather Threat Ahead

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MANY QUESTIONS: As is usually the case, we are inundated with questions about what to do with certain events on big severe weather days like Wednesday. The best I can do is tell you what the weather is going to do; decisions about field trips, baseball games, and any outdoor events are all going to be a case by case basis. Since we have so many questions, let’s do the afternoon discussion with a “FAQ” (frequently asked questions) format… (and don’t forget to watch the Weather Xtreme video, which has all of the graphics that go along with this discussion).

*WHEN? Strong to severe storms could impact Alabama at anytime tomorrow, tomorrow night, and Wednesday (even into Wednesday night). It is impossible to give you exact arrival times of individual storms in specific communities since there will several waves of storms, and not all of those waves will be linear. Just understand a shower or storm is possible at almost anytime from about 5:00 a.m. tomorrow through 12:00 midnight Wednesday. While severe weather is certainly possible tomorrow, the most serious threat will be Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

*WHAT TO EXPECT? First off, we should clearly point out that heavy rain and flooding will be an issue; the NWS in Huntsville has already issued a flash flood watch for their North Alabama counties, and one could be required down this way by tomorrow morning. The NAM is printing 1.46″ for Birmingham, but I believe many places will see over two inches of rain.

Otherwise, we will be dealing with all modes of severe weather through Wednesday night. Tomorrow, the main threat will be from strong straight winds and hail, but a tornado can’t be ruled out. I expect a weakening line of storms to move into Northwest Alabama tomorrow morning, but we all know those can pack a punch long beyond when you expect them to die out. Then, new storms will likely form tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night in the unstable air.

The primary threat of tornadoes will come on Wednesday afternoon, when supercells will begin to form across North and Central Alabama as the cap breaks. Forecast wind profiles and instability values suggest a few strong, long track tornadoes will be possible across the northern half of Alabama Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.

Then, Wednesday night, everything will merge into a long squall line with potential for wind damage. Everything should be out of the state soon after midnight Wednesday night.

*WILL WEDNESDAY BE AN HISTORIC WEATHER DAY? I would suggest there is way too much hyperbole when it comes to stormy weather in Alabama. Some say we are guilty, but long time readers know my concern for too much “hype” over storms and snow in our state. SPC does have most of North and Central Alabama in a moderate risk of severe weather.

It is important to simply understand this is April in Alabama, when we expect severe weather outbreaks. Yes, just about all forecast parameters suggest potential for a widespread severe weather event here, but I would not say “historic” at this point. We have another 24-30 hours to review data before we get too carried away here. There is no need to be alarmed… just be able to hear warnings, and have a plan, and you will be just fine.

RESOURCES: As we get ready for more active weather… let me list some resources that will help.

ABC 33/40 WEATHER CALL: The service that will send you a phone call if you are within a tornado warning polygon. Works very well and is very reliable.

ABC 33/40 LIVE RADAR STREAM: This is also the stream we use for long form tornado coverage when warnings begin to fly.

APPS: The ABC 33/40 Weather app for your iPhone or Android phone lets you watch our live coverage anytime, anywhere.

STORM CHASER STREAM: Ride along with the ABC 33/40 StormChaser on this stream. I fired it up today on the way up and back to Chattanooga, where I spoke this morning.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Following the stormy weather, we will promise delightful weather Thursday and Friday with sunny mild days and clear cool nights. The high Thursday will be only in the low 70s, followed by upper 70s Friday. A good chance we reach the upper 40s early Friday.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: Saturday looks dry, but a cold front will bring another chance of showers and storms Sunday; for now we don’t expect a major severe weather issue with the main dynamics so far north. The front should stall out, with potential for the rain to continue into early next week.

CHECK THIS OUT: Couldn’t resist posting this nasty looking storm southwest of Fort Worth as I write this…

See the cloud base from this storm via WFAA in Dallas and their helicopter…

Needless to say, a tornado warning is in effect for Johnson County, Texas.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Looks like Jim Stefkovich of the NWS Birmingham will our guest tonight; we will begin the show at 8:30 CDT… you can listen/watch live here.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

Stay tuned for updates… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Category: Alabama's Weather