Exceptional Easter Weather

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Really great weather is on tap for this Easter Sunday with afternoon highs climbing into the middle 80s with a good supply of sunshine following some morning clouds. Just like we saw yesterday, the afternoon heat might generate an isolated shower, but I think we stay primarily dry. And the same is true for Monday with the possibility of a couple of showers and good afternoon warmth with highs again in the 80s.

That changes on Tuesday and Wednesday. The stalled boundary to our north is now expected to get closer as a result of a stronger trough off to the west. One trough over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles moves northeast into the Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday. This dampens the ridge a little, but the next short wave moves in right behind the first one. This should force the boundary we’ve seen for the last couple of days that is just north of us a bit further south bringing the threat of storms into the northern two thirds of Alabama on Tuesday. The primary severe weather threat Tuesday will be hail and damaging wind with an isolated tornado possible.

That changes on Wednesday as the upper short wave digs in the lower Mississippi River Valley. This will generate a surface low in West Texas which should move to the vicinity of Memphis around noon on Wednesday with a cold front trailing through southern Arkansas and across Louisiana. As the upper trough moves steadily eastward, the surface low should move to Ohio by very early Thursday morning bringing the cold front through Alabama. It appears likely that our main severe weather threat will come on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening and all modes of severe weather will be possible. Watch the video for a look at the projected upper air sounding for Wednesday which includes CAPE values around 600 – and improving into the 1500 to 2000 range by afternoon – as well as some good helicity with values around 700. I would expect to see severe weather watches possibly as early as late Wednesday morning and extending well into the nighttime hours.

The surface low continues northeastward while the upper trough makes its way steadily east. This will pave the way for improving weather on Thursday and cooler, drier air as well. Due to the overall pattern, it appears that we should dip back into the 40s for lows while highs remain mainly in the 70s. And with a surface high positioned right over Alabama, the Southeast US should see a fabulous day Friday and another great day on Saturday.

Yet another trough brings a front through the Southeast on Sunday with what will probably be a relatively short period for rain chances. And then early next week a broad trough with a much stronger northwesterly flow promises a round of some pretty cool weather for early May. But that’s edging on voodoo country, so we’ll have to wait on specific values until we see if the trend sticks around.

The longer range forecasts suggest a stronger ridge pattern for the Southeast US, so we could see an extended period of dry weather as we get into the first week of May.

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Thanks for staying tuned to the Weather Xtreme Video. James Spann will be back with the next edition Monday morning by 7 am. I hope that you have a Happy Easter. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather