Severe weather analysis – 415 am

You’re probably thinking here we go again.  A line of severe storms is moving into NW Alabama out of Mississippi early this morning, and much of north and central Alabama is under a severe thunderstorm watch.  But, the next couple of days will not be anything like last Friday.

After a brief cool down this weekend, it is warm and humid again early this morning, with dewpoints in the mid 60s and temperatures in the low 70s.  With cool air aloft, the air is fairly unstable over Alabama, with CAPE around 1,000 J/kg.  This will be enough to keep the storms over MS strong as they move into Alabama, and some places may see damaging winds.  The initial line of storms may affect the BHM area during part of the rush hour, but hopefully it will break up some later this morning.

With any heating today, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70s, and CAPE values could rise to 2,500 J/kg over central Alabama.  There is no significant system forcing the storms this time, and wind shear will generally be weak, so we don’t expect widespread tornadoes.  However, with a weak front washing out to our north and the unstable air over Alabama, we could see thunderstorms just about any time over the next 2 days.  And, with a moist atmosphere, some places may get another 2″ of rain.  The ground is saturated and rivers are full, so we’ll have to watch for any flooding.

Main thing is…this is not a big deal like last Friday.  Not even close.  Scattered strong storms today and tomorrow, maybe some damaging winds, lots of rain and lightning, and possibly an isolated tornado.  Just keep an eye on the weather.

Category: Severe Weather