Long Duration Severe Weather Threat Ahead

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LONG DAY AHEAD: This is going to be a long day of severe weather watches and warnings… if you are a part of the weather blog family, we sure don’t worry about you getting those messages, but be sure and tell your friends and neighbors about the situation so they will be in tune with the weather developments today.

SET-UP: What a classic looking map this morning… a vertically stacked low is over the Southern Plains, with blizzard conditions back in the cold air setup northwest of the low, with severe convection ongoing in the warm sector. Please take a few minutes and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the details on the meteorological setup here. Clearly the potential limiting factor for this event is instability; most models continue to keep surface based CAPE values under 1,000 j/kg around here through the event; you really want to see those over 1,500 j/kg for a big event this time of the year. Hopefully that will work in our favor, but we all know dynamics can overcome the lack of thermodynamics on days like this.

The Storm Prediction Center has much of Alabama in a moderate risk of severe weather, with the exception of the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama, and the area around Mobile near the Gulf Coast. Of course, all of the state is in the standard slight risk, which extends well to the north.

Let’s do a FAQ format since there are so many questions to be answered…

WHAT CAN I EXPECT? All modes of severe weather are possible with this event. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. I don’t think we have major flash flooding issues, although some local problems are possible for a short while as the heavier storms pass by. The greatest risk of tornadoes will come this afternoon and early this evening in the discrete supercells over Alabama; later tonight the main issue will be damaging wind as the storms evolve into a line.

WILL WILL THE STORMS GET HERE? It makes no sense to ask “when will the storm arrive in my community?” today since initially the storms will be scattered, and not in a big line. While elevated storms have already formed this morning at 5:00 over West Alabama, we do not expect any severe weather in Alabama before 10:00 this morning. A few severe storms could develop over far West Alabama between 10:00 a.m. and 12:00 noon, but the main threat for the rest of the state will begin around 12:00 noon. Of course, initially the threat will continue over West Alabama, but storms will develop eastward through the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours. Then tonight everything rolls over into a long squall line, which will move into Georgia around midnight.

So, generally speaking, we have a 12 hour window from around 12:00 noon to 12:00 midnight when severe weather is likely across Alabama. It will indeed be a long duration event.

SHOULD SCHOOLS CLOSE EARLY? This has been debated in our comment section extensively yesterday, and everybody knows my opinion. But again, for the school systems that do close early, I ask the school officials to seriously consider allowing children the option to stay at school, especially in rural areas where many will go home alone to a mobile home.

WHAT ABOUT TALLADEGA? This is very problematic with over 20,000 people camping on the grounds around the Talladega Superspeedway. This morning you need to be sure you have a way of getting tornado warnings (NOAA Weather Radio, app on your phone, etc), and then develop a plan. Needless to say, we don’t want anybody in a tent, camper, or RV when a tornadic storm passes through. There is no magic answer here, but everybody has to take personal responsibility to be sure you and your family are safe.

SUGARLAND CONCERT: There is a big outdoor concert in Tuscaloosa tonight… looks like the severe weather threat there will end by 8:00 p.m. as the storms move to the east.

BOTTOM LINE: Take a little time this morning and review your severe weather plan, so if we do get into a serious situation you will know exactly what to do. Let’s all hope the marginal instability can keep this from becoming a big severe weather day, but we have to be prepared.

CALMER WEEKEND: The sky becomes mostly sunny tomorrow in the wake of the storms with a high around 70. Sunday promises to be beautiful as well, with maximum sunshine and a high in the mid 70s. Just a perfect day for running of the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega.

NEXT WEEK: The general idea is that we will be mostly dry, but warmer and more humid, Monday through Wednesday. Showers and storms could return late in the week, but the 00Z GFS is stronger with the upper ridge, and keeps the really widespread rain to the north. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range details.

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Stay tuned to the blog for running updates on the severe weather situation today…

Tags: severe storms

Category: Alabama's Weather