Significant Severe Weather Threat

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THIS AFTERNOON: What a delightful day across Alabama. Sunshine in full supply… low humidity and very comfortable temperatures…. most places will see a high in the upper 60s today after a frosty start. Scroll down for J.B.’s long list of morning lows. Clouds return tonight as we get ready for a very unsettled weekend of weather.

TOMORROW: Lots of questions about the timing of the rain tomorrow… I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video which goes through the day with the high resolution RPM model. It won’t rain all day, and the best chance of severe weather will come generally after 3:00 p.m. A pretty good part of the morning should be dry unless you are up in the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama.

A warm front will move to near U.S. 72 by midday tomorrow, and initially the main band of showers and storms will be along and north of this front, which is why we believe the best chance of morning rain will be to the north. But, the air becomes very unstable during the afternoon hours, when showers and storms will begin to spring up.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SPC maintains their standard “slight” risk of severe weather for the northern two-thirds of Alabama, but they continue to show an enhanced 30 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point for North Alabama, and are now mentioning strong tornadoes as a possibility. They indicate the best combination of instability, shear, and lift will be over North-Central Alabama, so we will all have to be on our toes.

All modes of severe weather are likely, including hail, damaging straight line winds, and tornadoes. While we could see severe weather as early as 3:00… it really looks like the core threat will come from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 4:00 a.m. Sunday. Everybody will need to be close to a good source of weather information so you won’t miss any warnings.

SUNDAY: Lingering showers are possible Sunday morning, but by midday all of the rain should down over South Alabama as drier air works into the northern part of the state. The weather will be a bit cooler with a high in the mid to upper 60s. We might see a peek or two of sunshine Sunday afternoon.

MONDAY: The RPM and the GFS remain dry as a bone for Sunday night and Monday… the Euro has been suggesting the potential for one more wave of rain Sunday night or early Monday, but I think we can just about take that out of the forecast. Monday should feature a partly to mostly sunny sky with a high in the low 70s.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The weather remains active and very changeable, making it difficult to be really specific when it comes to timing. A round of showers and storms looks likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by another one Thursday into Friday. The 12Z run of the GFS does not show a phased upper trough over the east the following weekend, which could keep us from getting a late season freeze, but don’t be surprised if the model changes again in coming days. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for the details on long range ideas.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten students at Paine Primary School in Trussville… and I am about to see the 2nd graders at Leeds Elementary. Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News. And, be sure and stay tuned to the blog for updates on the Alabama severe weather situation during the next 48 hours. Looks like no dull moments in the weather office this weekend!

Tags: severe

Category: Alabama's Weather