Severe Weather Possible This Weekend

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COLD MORNING: It can be cold in late March in Alabama. Some 5:00 observations from our Skywatchers include 32 atop Lookout Mountain near Collinsville, 34 at Goldridge in Cullman County, 36 at Coker and Center Point, and 37 at Fayette. The official observation from the Cullman Airport shows 33. No doubt there is lots of frost out there across the valleys and protected areas.

We warm up nicely today with ample sunshine with a high in the upper 60s.

ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND: Let me say up front this is a very active pattern that is about to begin with lots of quick changes… be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and maps that go with this discussion.

Clouds return tonight as a warm front begins to move north out of South Alabama. We might see a shower after midnight tonight in spots.

TOMORROW: The warm front should be near U.S. 278 at mid-morning, and most of the rain should be along and north of that front (north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden). The radar will be pretty quiet for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston. But, by afternoon, the air becomes pretty unstable, and showers and thunderstorms will begin to form. The surface instability values are projected to rise to near 2,000 j/kg by late afternoon, certainly sufficient for severe thunderstorms with strong wind fields in place.

Most of the forecast soundings really show a unidirectional type flow for the I-20 corridor, meaning the main threat would be from damaging straight line winds and hail… the better tornado threat would be over the Tennessee Valley close to that surface front where the surface winds will be more backed around to the southeast. However, we note that some of the severe weather parameters are sky high… including the EHI (energy helicity index) and the STP (significant tornado parameter). Those parameters really don’t peak until around midnight, so the severe weather threat will continue well into Saturday night, and possibly into the pre-dawn hours Sunday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the RPM depiction of the rain/storms if you have outdoor events planned. It won’t rain all day Saturday and Saturday night, but where storms do form they will pack a punch.

SPC maintains their standard slight risk of severe weather for the northern two-thirds of Alabama tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, with an enhanced risk (30 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point) over North Alabama. I would say the primary severe weather risk will from about 3:00 p.m. tomorrow through 3:00 a.m. Sunday. Keep an eye on the blog for updates as we get closer.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Showers should end by midday Sunday across the northern half of Alabama, and the sun might even peek out briefly by Sunday afternoon. The day will be cooler with a high in the 60s; we note the NAM keeps us in the 50s all day. The ECMWF brings in more impulse Sunday night that pulls the front northward again with another round of rain for North-Central Alabama in the general period from 6:00 p.m. Sunday through 8:00 a..m. Monday, and we will roll with that solution. Then, the sky clears and sunshine should return Monday afternoon with a high in the low 70s.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The weather will remain active and very changeable, and trying to nail down specifics this far in advance with this kind of pattern is next to impossible. We will have another round of rain and storms Tuesday night, and then again Thursday/Friday, but the timing could very well change. We also note that some pretty cold air could invade Alabama at the end of the week, possibly setting the stage for a late season freeze threat around Saturday morning April 2… wee the Weather Xtreme video for details.

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I have weather programs today at Paine Elementary in Trussville, and Leeds Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: severe

Category: Alabama's Weather