Cooler Air Blows Into Alabama

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NO MORE 80s FOR NOW: CAA (cold air advection) is the story for Alabama today; despite a good supply of sunshine the high will be only in the mid 60s with air coming down over the fresh snow pack way up north. You will really notice it early tomorrow with temperatures dip into the mid to upper 30s; there might be touch of light frost in scattered spots, and some of the colder valleys might make a run at 32 for a moment around daybreak. Then, we warm nicely during the day tomorrow with a high close to 70 degrees.

UNSETTLED WEEKEND: We will have to dodge showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, but nailing down the details is rather difficult due to model madness. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics.

A warm front will move northward through Alabama late Friday night into Saturday, and showers are likely along and north of this front. Initially we had mentioned a chance of showers mainly Saturday afternoon, but I think we will have to mention that chance now as early as Saturday morning due to the warm front.

The front should be north of here by the mid to late afternoon hours, and the sun might even break out for a bit. This will warm us well into the 70s, and also make air rather unstable. Surface based CAPE values rise to near 1,500 j/kg, and with strong winds aloft it looks like thunderstorms will begin to develop in scattered spots, and they will have a chance of being strong to severe. SPC has now put much of North Alabama in a standard “slight risk” for severe weather Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Probably a good call considering the forecast instability values and the time of year.

The front will stall out somewhere over southern Tennessee Saturday night, and then might drift southward a bit Sunday as as wave of low pressure along the front moves to the east. It still looks like most of the state will remain in a moist airmass Sunday, and we will maintain a chance of showers and storms. We note the ECMWF is drier for North Alabama Sunday.

BOTTOM LINE FOR THE WEEKEND: A shower or storm will be possible at just about any time Saturday and Sunday, and a few strong to severe storms could become an issue, especially Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. But, the rain won’t be continuous, and the sun should peek out at times. Highs both days should be in the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Forget March Madness… it is model madness we are dealing with. The GFS, which up until last night had suggested a very wet day Monday with rain and storms, is now basically dry as a bone. The Euro does bring a big batch of rain and storms in here late Sunday night into Monday morning before drier air returns Monday afternoon. Needless to say, forecast confidence is rather low at this point. Another batch of rain and storms is likely later in the week… the ECMWF has it in here Thursday, while the GFS is slower. We are clearing in a fast moving, unsettled spring weather pattern making it very hard to be specific more than a few days in advance. And yes, I still think at some point in the 7-14 day time frame the door will be open for a late season freeze for North Alabama. We will just have to wait and see how it all works out.

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I have a weather program this morning for the kids in the pre-school at First Baptist Church in Columbiana… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: cooler

Category: Alabama's Weather