A Few Scattered Showers Tonight

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COLD FRONT ON THE WAY: The sky will be occasionally cloudy across Alabama today ahead of a cold front due in here tonight. We will be very close to 80 this afternoon… if we happen to reach it that will make six consecutive days with a high of 80 or higher (yesterday Birmingham soared to 84). Most of the day will be dry, but we will continue to mention the risk of a few showers tonight as the front passes through. Rain will be light and spotty, and there is no risk of severe weather here despite a moderate risk defined to the north over parts of Kentucky, West Virginia, and Ohio. The NAM shows only 0.06″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is similar with 0.05″. The main window for showers around here will be from about 5:00 until 11:00 p.m., and the better totals will be up north near the Tennessee border, but even there amounts will be pretty light. South of Birmingham many folks won’t get enough rain to even wet the pavement. It certainly won’t help the pollen situation very much.

FRIDAY MORNING FROST? The weather turns cooler after midnight tonight. The high tomorrow will be only in the mid 60s despite a good supply of sunshine, and the NAM is now showing 36 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak Friday. This could certainly suggest the risk of a little frost for the colder valleys and protected areas, and also some risk of a light freeze for the coldest spots across North Alabama. Then we warm into the 67-70 degree range Friday afternoon with a sunny sky.

UNSETTLED WEEKEND: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details, but we will have to dodge a few rain drops over the weekend. The 00Z GFS still hints that most of the day Saturday will be dry here with most of the rain to the north over Tennessee and Kentucky, but we will still mention just the chance of an afternoon shower. Showers will be a little more likely Saturday night and Sunday, but I don’t think Sunday will be a wash-out, and the sun might even peek out at times. Just be aware that some rain is possible at just about any time during the day. The GFS is printing a high of 76 Saturday, followed by 80 on Sunday. If we do reach 80 Sunday we might even see a few thunderstorms involved as surface based instability values rise.

NEXT WEEK: The wettest period will come Monday and Monday night with good energy moving through along with a surface low that forms as well. Looks like most places will see around one inch of rain with potential for a few strong thunderstorms. Still not a classic severe weather look, but the ECMWF is more aggressive with parameters for Monday night.

Colder air moves into the state in the wake of the rain, and we have to wonder if Wednesday morning of next week will bring the threat of a light freeze. This is around the time the NAO spikes negative, so we will keep a close eye on data in coming days. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for details on long range thoughts and ideas.

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I have a weather program this morning at Pleasant Valley Elementary in Calhoun County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: cold front

Category: Alabama's Weather