Flash Flood Watch Up For Tomorrow

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TODAY: Low clouds have returned to Alabama, and a storm system is getting it’s act together west of the state. While we will be mostly dry here, strong to severe storms could break out today west of here, across much of Arkansas and Louisiana, and into Mississippi tonight. SPC has their standard slight risk of severe weather up for these places, and showers could move into Alabama late this afternoon and tonight. But, clearly the heaviest rain will come tomorrow.

WEDNESDAY WET-DOWN: First off the good news; severe weather parameters look very marginal on the latest set of model data, and SPC has pulled the slight risk out of North Alabama. Basically the southwest counties of the state are included in the risk tomorrow, from Camden and Monroeville down to Mobile. Up this way, there simply is no surface based instability available as it looks like early morning rain will keep us cool.

So, while an isolated severe storm is not out of the question, the biggest issue will be heavy rain and the threat of flooding. Just about all of Alabama (except the southeast corner of the state) is under a flash flood watch since the ground is saturated from Saturday’s soaker.

The NAM has backed off a bit on the projected rain, now showing 1.63″ for Birmingham… the GFS is similar with 1.53″. But, we note the RPM is showing widespread amounts of 2-3 inches for North-Central Alabama, and the guys at NCEP are similar with their QPF forecast. If you live in a flood prone area, just be aware that some flash flood warnings are very possible tomorrow.

TIMING: While some rain is possible tonight over North and Central Alabama, it looks like the most widespread rain will impact the northern third of Alabama after midnight, then moving slowly southward during the day. The rain should taper off from northwest to southeast by late afternoon, and most of the rain will be long gone by 8:00 p.m.

RAW DAY THURSDAY: Looks more and more like Thursday will be a clone of Sunday. Cloudy and cold with a chilly north wind and temperatures that probably won’t get out of the 40s. Maybe even a few snow flurries around the Tennessee border. And, if the sky can clear Thursday night, we will be very close to freezing by daybreak Friday. Colder spots could visit the 20s if the clouds get out of here.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: We begin to warm up Friday afternoon with a high in the low 60s along with a good supply of sunshine. The weekend looks great with a sunny sky Saturday and Sunday along with a high in the upper 60s.

NEXT WEEK: Spring break week for many… and there is model madness. At some point Monday through Wednesday most likely we will deal with a round of showers and storms, but the 06Z GFS is now moving that in here Monday (previous runs had the rain in here Tuesday night and Wednesday), and the ECMWF has backed off on the idea of rain completely for the first half of the week. Whatever, the weather, more than likely, will be changeable with a little bit of everything, which is what we expect in March. Just too early for a specific forecast due to the model conflicts… see the Weather Xtreme video for specifics.

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I have a weather program this morning at Pinson Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: soaker

Category: Alabama's Weather