Severe Weather Possible Late Tonight
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STORM ALERT 2011 TONIGHT: A quick reminder we will be at Lincoln High School tonight in Talladega for the last Storm Alert 2011 stop… the show begins at 6:45, and we hope to see many of you there.
ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD: Don’t forget to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion… but no doubt we will have some risk of severe weather late tonight. During the day today, the weather will be mild and breezy with a few showers, but the most active weather will be west of Alabama this afternoon, where a moderate risk of severe weather has been defined over West Tennessee, East Arkansas, North Mississippi, and North Louisiana. A few strong tornadoes are possible in this region, and we will be watching radars with great interest this evening as the event unfolds. We note the first severe thunderstorm watch of the event is already in effect for parts of Texas and Oklahoma.
THE ALABAMA THREAT: SPC maintains a slight risk (their standard risk) of severe weather for areas west of a line from near Fort Payne to Birmingham to Butler. A few isolated severe storms are possible over Northwest Alabama from 10:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight, but the primary threat for Alabama will come from midnight to 6:00 a.m. as the activity to the west rolls over into a long squall line and passes through our state. Clearly, the main threat will come from strong straight line winds with the QLCS (quasi-linear convective system), but with a decent amount of low level helicity a small spin up tornado can’t be ruled out somewhere.
The RPM shows the squall line reaching the Birmingham metro area around 3:00 a.m…. and then it weakens as it moves east and south toward daybreak. Clearly the primary severe weather risk will be from Birmingham north and west, with a much lesser threat to the south and east.
DON’T MISS THE WARNINGS: Again, with these “middle of the night” severe weather events, we remind you to never rely on sirens to get the warning; those are pretty much worthless when it comes to reaching people in homes and businesses. Be sure your NOAA Weather Radio is programmed properly and in good working order… that way you won’t miss the warning. And, a reminder ABC 33/40 offers WeatherCall, that is the service that sends the warnings to the phone of your choice. You can sign up here.
TOMORROW/SATURDAY: The sky becomes sunny by tomorrow afternoon as dry air works into the state with a high in the upper 60s. Saturday promises to be a delightful day to kick off the weekend… it will be cool early in the day with a low around 40 (upper 30s for the cooler spots), but we warm quickly into the low 70s by afternoon with a sunny sky.
ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: Clouds return Sunday, and we will mention the chance of a few passing showers as another dynamic weather system approaches from the west. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are a little slower with this one, and they are now suggesting the main window for strong to severe storms will come during the day Monday. Both models show the surface low well to the north of Alabama, but there is excellent dynamic support and severe weather is certainly possible, but it is way too early to be specific. We need to get tonight’s system out of here before we really get down to the details on this one.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: The weather looks dry for the rest of next week… highs will be in the 60s, but mornings will be rather chilly with lows in the 30s. Colder spots will most likely experience a light freeze early Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
VOODOO LAND: The GFS is suggesting potential for cold snaps in March… see the Weather Xtreme video for the details on long range ideas.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….
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| Dr. Tim Coleman | WeatherBrains Podcast | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
Busy, busy day ahead… I have weather programs today at North River Christian Academy in Tuscaloosa, and Greenwood Elementary in Bessemer… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so. Then, it is off to Lincoln for Storm Alert 2011. I will be back in the studio in plenty of time for the severe weather issues tonight… looks like we will be burning the midnight oil. Again, stay tuned for updates…
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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