Strong Storms Thursday Night

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS AFTERNOON: Once again, MOS guidance from the various models were too cool for this part of Alabama today. Despite a cold front that passed through late last night, temperatures are right around 70 degrees along the I-20 corridor, with mid 70s down around Montgomery. The coolest air is over the northwest corner of the state, where Muscle Shoals is sitting around the 60 degree mark after mid-afternoon. The air is very dry and the sun is shining brightly in most places.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: The dry air should cool very effectively tonight, and most places will wind up in the 36-40 degree range early tomorrow morning. Some of the colder pockets across North Alabama might touch the freezing mark for a brief time. Then, tomorrow looks delightful… with ample sunshine and a high around 70. In fact, the NAM is printing 72, and is probably closer to the truth.

THURSDAY: Clouds return tomorrow night, and we will need to mention a chance of showers beginning Thursday morning thanks to a warm front moving northward. By afternoon, the best rain should be over Tennessee, and the sun could break out for a while, pushing temperatures into the mid 70s.

SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather in the broad area from Paris, Texas to Nashville and Louisville from 6:00 a.m. Thursday to 6:00 a.m. Friday, and that risk clips the northern and western part of Alabama. The higher probabilities of severe weather are centered over Arkansas, where the best combination of instability and dynamics will be found Thursday evening.

The RPM suggests that we will be mostly dealing with a squall line Thursday night, entering Northwest Alabama around 10:00 p.m., reaching Birmingham by 3:00 a.m., and then nearing Montgomery around 6:00 a.m. Sure seems like the greatest risk of severe weather here overnight Thursday will come from damaging straight line winds… but 0-1 km helicity values hint that an isolated tornado is certainly not out of the question, especially over Northwest Alabama in that 10:00 p.m. to midnight time frame Thursday night. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details of the threat.

FRIDAY: Showers and storms will end very early in the day, and the sky should become partly sunny by afternoon with a high in the 60s.

WEEKEND PEEK: Saturday should be the best day, with a sunny sky and a high at or just over 70 degrees. Then, another warm front will move north, bringing clouds and a chance of showers statewide on Sunday. We should rise into the mid 70s Sunday as the warm front moves north of here by afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: Another potent short wave will bring a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms to Alabama Monday night of next week… the GFS and the ECMWF still suggest the main risk will come sometime between 6:00 p.m. Monday and 4:00 a.m. Tuesday, and it is too early to be really specific about the threat. Let’s get the Thursday night system out of here and we can focus on this one. Drier air blows in here on Tuesday, and the medium range global models continue to back down on the amount of cold air that reaches the state during the middle part of next week. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for the details.

STORM ALERT 2011: About to head east… we will be at Springville Middle School tonight for our annual severe weather awareness tour. The show begins at 6:45, but I will be there early doing the weather live on ABC 33/40 at 5:00 and 6:00… hope you can join us. And, don’t forget we will be at Lincoln High School in Talladega County Thursday evening. We have ramped up the schedule this week since it is severe weather awareness in Alabama.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

I had a great time today visiting with the first graders at Brent Elementary School in Bibb County… they will be on the Pepsi KIDCAM tomorrow at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: stormy

Category: Alabama's Weather