Major Storm Cranking Up To The West

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THIS AFTERNOON: Not much rain across our state this afternoon, but the sky is mostly cloudy over the northern half of the state and temperatures are generally between 55 and 62. Any showers tonight should remain widely spaced as we await the big show tomorrow night.

TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT: A deepening surface cyclone will move from southern Arkansas to the western tip of Kentucky tomorrow, and the pressure gradient will tighten up across our state dramatically. This means a windy day; southeast winds will average 15-30 mph, with occasional gusts to 40 by afternoon. A shower is possible during the morning, but we still expect the main rain event from 4:00 p.m. until midnight.

The rain will be heavy at times, and one inch is likely during that 8 hour period.. The NAM is printing 0.66″, while the GFS is at 0.70″ (for Birmingham).

SEVERE WEATHER? See the Weather Xtreme video and you will see there will be some elevated instability here, with MUCAPE values to almost 500 j/kg. However, like most cold season systems, there is no surface based instability. SPC has all of Louisiana and most of Mississippi in a slight risk tomorrow, but the only part of Alabama included is the southwest corner; Washington, Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia Counties.

We will still need to watch radar closely tomorrow night for convection embedded in the rain mass… we sure can’t rule out a small spin-up tornado somewhere around here. The 0-1 km SRH (storm relative helicity) values are almost off the chart… and sometimes you have have too much helicity that actually disrupts updrafts entirely. Bottom line is that this doesn’t look like a major severe weather threat, but with the incredible dynamic forcing, you sure can’t rule out a warning or two tomorrow night.

WEDNESDAY: This will be a windy and much colder day. We will struggle to reach the low 40s, and a few scattered snow flurries are possible over the northern third of the state during the morning. Northwest winds will average 12-22 mph.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: We will have a shallow layer of cold air in place, and a persistent, unsettled southwest flow aloft on top of that cold air. The next trough will bring a cold rain to the state Friday into Friday night… both the GFS and the ECMWF do not show any major threat of freezing rain, but we will watch it closely since the models probably won’t understand the vast nature of the snow pack that will be in place north of Alabama during the latter half of the week.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday should feature a slowly clear sky with a high in the 40s. Sunday will be warmer with a high in the 50s along with a partly sunny sky. For now we don’t expect any significant chance of precipitation over the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: The next wave comes along with a chance of rain Monday into Monday night. Again, the GFS shows this will be a mostly rain event for Alabama, although there could be a brief change to snow before it winds down late Monday night or Tuesday morning.

LONG RANGE: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the GFS is forecasting a very positive NAO in the Feb 5-15 time frame. This suggests the main plunge of Arctic air will be down over the Plains and areas west of Alabama, with cold air reaching our state in very shallow form. And, with a mean upper trough to the west, you just have to wonder if that could produce one or two freezing rain threats in February.

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I had a great time today visiting with the 1st graders at Moody Elementary School in St. Clair County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: rain, storms

Category: Alabama's Weather