Very Active Weather Ahead

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NO DULL MOMENTS: What an active pattern for Alabama for the next seven days and beyond… another day you will want to watch the Weather Xtreme video to see all of the graphics that go along with this discussion.

WHOPPER OF A WINTER STORM: Needless to say, the blizzard that is coming up from Oklahoma to the Great Lakes and then over to New England will grab the headlines in coming days… cities like Tulsa, St. Louis, Chicago, and Detroit will be hit hard with 10-25 inches of snow and high wind possibly creating white out conditions at times tomorrow and tomorrow night. There will be some freezing rain and sleet in the mix on the southern edge of the wintry precipitation, and quite frankly a tough call for meteorologists working that zone, where warm air advection could turn everything to rain once the storm gets fully cranked up. Of course, all of this mess will be well to the north and west of Alabama.

THE ALABAMA WEATHER SITUATION: We begin the day today with widespread light rain. This rain could taper off later this morning, and just a few scattered showers are possible this afternoon and tonight as the lead short wave moves to the east. The weather stays mild, with a high today once again in the 60s.

TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT: Winds will increase during the day tomorrow as a deepening surface low (1000 mb or below) moves from southern Arkansas to Kentucky. We could see gusts to over 30 mph by afternoon… with gusts over 40 mph on the ridge tops. A shower or two could pop up tomorrow morning, but the main event will come from about 4:00 p.m. to midnight, when 1 to 2 inches of rain are likely.

SEVERE WEATHER? There is no surface based CAPE, so as usual the main limiting factor here will be the lack of instability. There is some degree of elevated instability, however, and the helicity values are off the chart (probably too much shear, quite frankly), so we will have to keep an eye on things. More than likely, we won’t see much thunder and lightning, but a small spin-up tornado might drop somewhere. SPC has a slight risk of severe weather only for far Southwest Alabama with no formal risk up this way; see the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY: Frigid air coming off the vast snow pack to the north arrives Wednesday. We will struggle to reach the low 40s with a very chilly north wind. There might be one or two snow flurries Wednesday morning, but nothing to worry about.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: An unsettled southwest flow aloft continues as another upper trough comes out of the Southwest U.S. Thursday looks like a mostly cloudy and chilly day, and then we will deal with a cold rain on Friday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that the event Friday will be all rain, but there might be a little snow on the far northern periphery of the precipitation Friday night. We will have much better clarity on this once we get tomorrow night’s system out of here.

OUR WEEKEND: Saturday looks cool and dry with a clearing sky and a high in the 40s. Sunday will be perhaps the nicest day with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low 50s.

NEXT WEEK: Yet another wave impacts Alabama Monday and Monday night, and this one will be a very close call between rain and snow over North Alabama. Way to early to be specific or worry about, but see the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and specific info.

LONG RANGE: Unsettled weather looks to be the story through mid-February with a broad southwest flow, combined with the flow of cold, Arctic air up north. Looks pretty interesting…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record our 5th anniversary show tonight… we will recall some memorable moments from the first five years of the netcast that’s all about weather tonight. You’ll hear some voices from the past and the present remember their favorite WeatherBrains moments. There will be some laughs, for sure.

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I will be doing a weather program at Moody Elementary School today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: mild, rain

Category: Alabama's Weather