Model Changes

Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme video posted soon!

We are about 36 hours away from the beginning of a winter storm in Alabama, and while the details will have to change as we adjust and “now-cast” the situation, the over-all message remains the same. Scroll down to see Dr. Tim’s last post showing the sounding temperatures. He does an excellent job to explain why a severe ice storm is on the table as well as significant snow.

Here is the 9Z (3 AM) RPM model snow accumulation chart through Monday.

RPM (9Z) Snow Accumulation Chart

Yep, you see it right! It is suggesting parts of St. Clair, Calhoun, Etowah, Cleburne, and Cherokee Counties could get well in excess of 10 inches of snow. Birmingham would be in a solid 3-6″ category, but Shelby County would get less than that. Remember, where precipitation is a mixture for a while, it will reduce the amount of available snowflakes greatly. If you have a sleet/snow mix, you might only get 50% of what folks who are in the all-snow areas get.

Now, you can contrast that with snow accumulations based on the NAM and GFS that show less precipitation. Both of those project somewhere in the 2-4″ average with 5-8″ heavy bands developing. This is probably due to the models forecasting thunderstorms near the coast; that typically reduces heavy precipitation farther north.

Either way, whether it is a mixture for you or all snow, this is going to be a memorable storm.

At this point, there is no reason to deviate much from the forecast maps. Once we see what modes of precipitation develop over Jackson, Meridian, and Columbus, Mississippi, we will definitely be adjusting for Central Alabama.

-Jason
Follow me on Twitter: @simpson3340

Category: Alabama's Weather, Winter Weather