Winter Weather Ahead

The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player to the right. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme Video on iTunes by clicking here.

In case you haven’t heard, there is some winter weather on the way to Central Alabama! The warm afternoon yesterday certainly masked the possibility of a major winter storm for the Southeast US in the next 36 to 48 hours. But it will be noticeably colder today with highs about 20 degrees colder than yesterday – reaching only the lower 40s. A short wave in the main eastern US trough will bring some snow to East Tennessee and parts of the southern Appalachians today, but the main event is shaping up to the west with a vigorous short wave coming out of the southern Rockies.

That short wave will begin approaching us on Sunday with precipitation beginning to the west and southwest of us and spreading over Central Alabama as the surface low develops in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The surface low is forecast to move just offshore along the Gulf coast. Unlike the Blizzard of 1993, this storm is not expected to intensify. In fact, the upper short wave and the surface low are forecast to weaken with time. However, this system is still forecast to bring a major winter storm to portions of the Southeast US. In fact, snow totals of 6 to 10 inches are possible in some sections of Mississippi and northern Alabama.

While questions still remain – remember, the storm system being forecast is not even on the board yet – there has been general consistency in the various model runs. The consistency from run to run as well as the consistency across models has certainly done wonders for the overall confidence of meteorologists in forecasting a major winter weather event for the area. Recall, though, that snow events in the Southeast US typically result in somewhat narrow bands of the heaviest snow, so there could still be some adjustments to the final amounts. At this writing, it looks like a widespread 1 to 4 inch snowfall will cover the are along a line from about Vernon to just north of Birmingham to just south of Gadsden. See the video for a specific map. The greatest threat for icing appears to be in the area from about Calera to Montgomery. Model sounding profiles from Birmingham north suggest primarily a snow event which could begin with a mixture of snow and freezing rain. And might even end Monday morning with a mixture, too.

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Watches for a large portion of Alabama except the southern most counties along the Florida border.

Timing still appears on track for the precipitation to begin Sunday afternoon from the west or southwest. Once precipitation begins, it is likely to continue through the night into Monday morning tapering off by midday. The magnitude of the event means that everyone should be prepared to stay off the roads for much of Sunday afternoon and evening and much of the day Monday. Travel is likely to become hazardous and all but the most necessary travel should be curtailed.

Unfortunately, the one word to describe the weather for much of next week is cold. So what ever falls tomorrow and Monday could be around for several days. The upper air pattern goes nearly zonal so the cold air is going nowhere. In fact, there is some reinforcement to the cold air expected Thursday. So it appears likely that we stay well below seasonal temperatures for highs and lows for the upcoming week.

To quickly summarize, 3 to 6 inches across the Tennessee Valley, 1 to 4 inches in a band between Cullman and Calera, and a mixture with potentially serious icing from Calera to south of Montgomery.

Looking out into voodoo country, cold remains the watch word with a continual series of troughs keeping the weather changing.

Don’t forget to listen to our weekly netcast anytime on the web or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

Please be sure to be safe in the upcoming weather. Travel is strongly discouraged. This kind of event is not the usual occurrence for us, so be prepared for power outages that might extend for many hours. Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.

Category: Alabama's Weather