A Few Raindrops Possible Tomorrow

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BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES: We are projecting a high in the mid 50s today, not far from the average high of 53 degrees for January 4. The air remains dry; we will call it partly sunny with some mid and high level clouds moving through the sky at times. Clouds will thicken tonight, and an impulse will bring the risk of a little scattered light rain tomorrow. But, moisture levels are very limited, and the best chance of any really significant rain will be over the southern half of the state. Hardly any rain will fall north of I-20, where the sun could be out at times tomorrow.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These days will be cool and dry; the high Thursday will be in the low 50s, but colder air moves into the state Friday as an upper trough forms over the eastern U.S. We note that few snow flurries are possible Friday over extreme Northeast Alabama in the colder air, and up to the northeast parts of East Tennessee could see some accumulating snow Friday.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday looks cold and dry with a high in the mid to upper 40s along with a partly sunny sky. From there, forecast confidence continues to drop off due to model divergence.

The ECMWF brings a well defined wave through the Deep South Sunday with periods of rain, while the GFS is slower, and wants to bring small ripples in the flow from time to time Sunday through Tuesday with just a little light rain at times.

For now we will just mention a chance of rain Sunday, perhaps lingering into Monday, and we will fine tune that as we get closer to the weekend and model clarity improves. If the ECMWF is correct (the faster solution), there could be a brief period of sleet or freezing rain during the pre-dawn hours Sunday, and if the GFS is correct, that could happen during the pre-dawn hours Monday. One way or another, this doesn’t look like a significant winter weather problem at this point, mainly just some light rain at times.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: All eyes will be on the monster 1065 mb high dropping south out of Canada next week. It remains to be seen if the upper pattern will take the deepest part of the cold air over the western or eastern U.S… but it will need to be watched. There is clearly potential for winter weather mischief with this kind of setup; the greatest fear is that the air gets into Alabama in very shallow form, and moist air from the Gulf runs over the cold layer, setting up some kind of ice storm for somebody around here. Understand that is no forecast, but this pattern sure favors something like that at some point in the January 12-20 time frame. We will be watching with great interest; see the Weather Xtreme video for more details on the potential mid-month cold wave for much of the continental U.S.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For Auburn fans traveling to Phoenix for next week’s national championship game, the weather looks great. Other than a chance of isolated showers late Friday or Friday night of this week, the weather will be mostly dry through Monday, with highs in the 60s, and early morning lows in the 37-40 degree range.

LOOKING BACK AT 2010: Birmingham’s official rain total for the year was 47.89″, which is 6.08″ below average. Other rain deficiencies for the year included 10.97″ at Anniston, 11.93″ at Tuscaloosa, and a whopping 16.41″ at Montgomery. Birmingham’s mean temperature for the year was 63.2 degrees, which is slightly above the average annual mean of 62.4. Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Montgomery saw mean temperatures slightly below average. The hottest day was August 12, when the high was 102. Coldest days were January 5, January 11, and December 14 when the low was 14 degrees. There were a total of 19 tornadoes confirmed within the Birmingham NWS County Warning Area (CWA), all of them in the EF0-EF3 range.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We have a morning special today… it begins at 9:00 a.m. CST. Storm chaser Roger Hill will be our guest; scroll down for more about the show. You can listen/watch live on uStream here, and the show will be on the web and iTunes by midday.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Tags: cool

Category: Alabama's Weather