Calm Week; Watching Cold Air Building Up North

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QUIET PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY: A nice, calm weather pattern will continue through the weekend with temperatures at or a little below average. An impulse will bring clouds on Wednesday, along with the chance of some light rain, mainly over the southern half of the state. Moisture up this way is very limited, and it looks like we won’t need to mention much more than a little scattered light rain from I-20 south. North of Birmingham the chance of rain looks very small. Drier air returns Thursday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The trend toward colder weather will begin; highs will drop into the 40s Friday as an upper trough begins to carve out over the eastern third of the U.S., and Saturday looks cold and dry with a high in the 40s following a morning low well down in the 20s.

A little model madness creeps in Sunday as there is quite a difference in the handling of southern stream energy coming out of Texas. The ECMWF is much faster, and brings in light rain, mainly over South Alabama, on Sunday. The GFS on the other hand is slower, and suggests it will be Monday before we have a chance of light rain. There is still a little concern there could be a window during the pre-dawn hours Monday for a little sleet or freezing rain over North Alabama, but moisture will be very limited, and it sure looks like the bulk of the precipitation will be over the southern half of the state.

For now in the public forecast we will indicate increasing clouds Sunday, with a little light rain possible Sunday night and Monday. We can fine tune the forecast as the weekend gets closer, but confidence in any specific solution is rather low right now.

NEXT WEEK: Our eyes are focused on the massive 1060 mb high the GFS develops over the Yukon next week. This represents the center of a brutally cold airmass that will move south in one way or another during the January 10-20 period. Combine that with an active southern stream that stays in place, and the door is certainly open for some winter weather mischief for parts of the Deep South along the way. Absolutely no way of resolving details right now, but be aware the pattern looks very cold and unsettled for the middle part of January.. so stay tuned. See the Weather Xtreme video for more.

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Tags: calm

Category: Alabama's Weather