Santa Brings Some Snow

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MODEL MADNESS: I know there are some serious weather geeks that wait for every model run, hitting the refresh button on their browser just waiting for the next 6 hour panel set to come in. Just a reminder that NWP (numerical weather prediction) is far from perfect, and the weather is going to do what it is going to do, regardless of the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, RPM, RUC, JMA, WRF, SREF, or anything else (maybe even the LFM or MRF for you old timers). Live by the models, die by the models. At some point you have to forget about them and look out the window, and that time is getting closer.

SHORT TERM: The weather turns colder tonight with a clear sky; we will be in the upper 20s early tomorrow. Then, tomorrow promises to be cool and dry with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the 47-50 degree range.

FRIDAY: Christmas Eve looks like a nice day, with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low to mid 50s. Nice day for traveling if you will be hitting the road.

CHRISTMAS STORM: I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video… you will see enough maps and graphics there to make your head spin, and often the maps tell a better story that my third grade writing skill here. Let’s use the bullet point format again this afternoon…

*There isn’t much skill in a specific forecast (I am talking accumulation amount and placement) on your run of the mill winter weather event in Alabama until we get within about 48 hours of the arrival of the storm. A superstorm like the March 1993 blizzard is different; we were able to identify that one with some accumulation projections beyond 48 hours because of the magnitude and intensity of the system… and this weekend’s system is no Blizzard of 93. Not even in the same universe.

*No point in asking about the specific impact on any certain community or county this far in advance.

*The biggest limitation for North-Central Alabama (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden) remains the moisture levels. The atmosphere will be pretty dry, and the 12Z models generally continue the idea of light snow around here without any really serious accumulation. The ECMWF remains the model with the most robust moisture, suggesting a 1/2 to 1 inch snow for the I-20 corridor.

*Seems like the best combination of moisture and dynamic lift will be somewhere over East-Central Alabama Saturday… but we are certainly not ready to mention anything beyond 1/2 inch at this point. The NAM does try and show an enhanced band of 1-2 inch snow from near Anniston to north of Atlanta, but do not consider this a forecast. With almost any storm system like this, there will be a narrow band (50 miles wide or less) or heavier snow, but you usually don’t know the placement of that until the radars begin to light up.

BOTTOM LINE: We will forecast periods of light snow Saturday, with a dusting to 1/2 inch possible for North-Central Alabama. The day will be cloudy, cold, and breezy with temperatures dropping into the mid 30s and holding there all day.

CHRISTMAS DAY TRAVEL: If the ongoing forecast is correct, then there won’t be any really serious travel issues. Temperatures will be above freezing, and roads will be just wet. Major bridge icing problems aren’t likely either during the day since is light snow and not freezing rain, but there could be icy spots Saturday night when temperatures drop below freezing.

REMEMBER: This forecast is certainly subject to change, we should have our first accumulation potential map here on the Weather Xtreme video early tomorrow morning.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY: Cold and dry weather is the story. The low early Sunday will be close to 20, with lows in the upper teens possible early Monday and Tuesday. We begin a warming trend Tuesday afternoon.

LONG RANGE: There will be lots of model madness as we approach the New Year with the NAO flipping positive and a general pattern change ahead. We note the GFS continues the idea of a severe weather event potentially around New Year’s Day… see the Weather Xtreme video for the details.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: white Christmas

Category: Alabama's Weather