Sometimes Dreams Come True

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LET’S SING ALONG…

“I’m dreaming of a white christmas,
just like the ones I used to know
Where the treetops glisten and children listen
to hear sleigh bells in the snow

May your days be merry and bright,
and may all your christmases be white”

Before we deal with the Christmas situation… let’s talk short term weather.

TODAY/TOMORROW: We begin the day with a cloudy, balmy morning with temperatures around 60 degrees. We figure they will drop into the mid to upper 50s and hang around those levels today as a northerly flow returns. We should begin to see a few intervals of sunshine this afternoon as dry air takes over. Tomorrow will be cool and dry, with ample sunshine and a high in the 47-50 degree range.

FRIDAY: With the slower arrival of our Christmas storm, it looks like Friday will be pretty decent day, with a partly sunny sky and a high in the 50s. Clouds thicken late in the day, and some precipitation could arrive after midnight Friday night.

CHRISTMAS SNOW: As always, I encourage everyone to watch the Weather Xtreme video for a full explanation, which often pictures are indeed worth many words written in a blog discussion. Let’s do the forecast for the weekend in bullet form…

*There is very little skill in forecasting winter storm events in Alabama until you get with about 48 hours of the event. Nobody knows the exact snow placement and amount this early. Even the know-it-alls don’t know, even though they will never let you believe it (those of us that have been doing this a long time professionally have had enough doses of humility over the years to be firmly out of the know-it-all camp). We can begin talking accumulation placement tomorrow when that 48 hour window opens up.

*Light snow is possible for most of North and Central Alabama, and even parts of South Alabama. Again, no need to ask about specific counties of communities… way too early for accumulation maps and specific placement ideas. Most of the state has a good chance of seeing some snow Saturday.

*We all know climatology is working against us when it comes to snow on Christmas Day. We have never had a white Christmas in the classic sense in Birmingham… and weather records here go back to the late 1800s. See this from the NWS in Birmingham for a good look at our white Christmas history.

*The weather system is not truly phased when it comes through here, based on all of the latest models. This won’t be a March 1993 Superstorm, really anything close to it. You don’t need to be stocking up supplies for a multiple day snow-in.

*Confidence in seeing some snow over the northern half of the state is actually pretty high, and that is very cool for the snow fans (yes, I am one of those). In fact, for I-20 and points north, the whole event could be mostly snow with just a little rain at the beginning of the event during the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Pretty exciting stuff.

*The NAM and the GFS, the two primary American models, show very limited moisture, and not much more than a dusting of snow for the I-20 corridor. The deepest moisture will be over the southern half of the state, where initially the precipitation will fall in the form of rain.

*The ECMWF and the GEM, the European and Canadian models, are a little more bullish on moisture for North Alabama, but it is still limited. Both of these models suggest enough snow to get 1/2 to 1 inch on the ground. Which, if happens, would be historic for Birmingham. Up north, everybody would completely laugh at the fuss this is creating.

*The ECMWF, which has certainly been the most consistent so far in terms of output for this storm, really shows perhaps the highest snow amounts over parts of East-Central and Southeast Alabama Saturday evening as the surface low deepens. Places like Auburn, Opelika, Eufaula, and Troy could see over 2 inches if the model is correct, and that remains to be seen. Even Mobile could see a few snow flakes with this scenario.

*One way or another, Christmas Day will be much colder with temperatures dropping into the 30s and holding there all day with an icy north wind.

BOTTOM LINE: Light rain should break out early Saturday morning, changing to light snow. Not much more than dusting to 1/2 inch for much of North Alabama, with a dusting possible even down into the southern half of the state by the late afternoon hours. The day will be windy and cold with temperatures dropping into the 30s.

TRAVEL? Many folks hit the road Christmas morning after opening the presents… at this point it looks like the snow will be light and temperatures at the surface will be generally above freezing, so odds of major travel issues at this point look small, but anytime we have snow flying the drivers tend to get a little wigged out as you know. Again, we will much more specific tomorrow.

NEXT WEEK: Look for a low in the 16-21 degree range early Monday morning, and we could reach the upper teens again early Tuesday. Then, a slow moderation is likely for the rest of the week. Showers could break out toward the end of the week as a deep southerly flow develops across the Deep South.

LONG RANGE: Very little confidence with a pattern change possible around New Year’s Day. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for some ideas… interesting to note the 06Z GFS shows a severe weather look for Alabama around January 2.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… and remember, take a deep breath and be NICE today on the comment section of the blog. This is just weather… it should be fun this time of the year!

Tags: white Christmas

Category: Alabama's Weather