Big Weekend Weather Changes

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TODAY: We are below freezing, but this morning is not as cold as yesterday with most places in the 20s. Temperatures should reach the low to mid 50s today, the first time we have been above 50 since December 4 (last Saturday). The sky will be partly sunny, and the clouds will thicken tonight.

TOMORROW: While a little light rain could break out tomorrow morning over Northwest Alabama, it still looks like the main window for rain will come from 2:00 p.m. tomorrow until 2:00 a.m. Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 inch are likely, with isolated spots getting up to one inch. The NAM is actually pretty aggressive with rain amounts, printing 1.13″ for Birmingham. The GFS is drier, and in our opinion closer to being correct, with 0.48″. There is a chance of thunder, but severe weather is not likely with basically no surface based instability.

ARCTIC AIR BLAST SUNDAY: Very cold air returns to Alabama Sunday. There is still a chance the rain could briefly change to snow early Sunday morning, but traditionally in these situations there is very little accumulation. The best chance of getting the ground white will be across the high terrain of Jackson, Marshall, DeKalb, and Cherokee Counties of Northeast Alabama.

The day Sunday will be very cold, with temperatures dropping down toward the freezing mark and basically staying there all day. The wind chill index will be in the teens at times, and we will maintain the chance of a few scattered morning snow flurries. But, the surface low will be near Buffalo, and the best wrap around moisture for flurries will remain north of Alabama.

BITTER COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK: We will need to bring the forecast lows down early next week. The GFS is now printing 15 degrees for Birmingham, and based on the origin of the incoming airmass, that sure sounds reasonable. We will have a very hard time getting above freezing Monday, and Tuesday morning will be the coldest for the low spots and protected areas; they will make a run for the single digits with a clear sky and light wind. We rise to near 40 Tuesday afternoon as a slow warming trend begins.

The GFS continues to show some rain for Alabama on Wednesday and Thursday of next week as warmer and moist air moves in from the south. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

CHRISTMAS WEATHER? No way of knowing the weather at Christmas this early in the game, but you can watch the Weather Xtreme video for an idea from the 06Z operational GFS.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

I will be out at the Habitat for Humanity project that ABC 33/40 is sponsoring up in the Smithfield Estates area this morning; that neighborhood was wiped out by an EF5 tornado April 4, 1977 that killed over 20 people. Amazing I can still see a little evidence of that huge event today. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: cold, rain

Category: Alabama's Weather