Big Soaking Ahead… Severe Weather Possible

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS AFTERNOON: One thing is for certain… no severe weather will occur in Alabama for the next several hours with a cool, stable airmass in place. Periods of rain will continue, but between now and around midnight we don’t expect any serious weather problems other than getting wet. Temperatures are in the 50s now, but should slowly rise tonight, reaching the low 60s after midnight.

SEVERE WEATHER? SPC has much of Alabama in a slight risk on day two, which begins at 6:00 a.m. tomorrow. We believe that severe storms, including a few tornadoes, will erupt over Mississippi during the next few hours, as the warm front moves northward into the Magnolia State. A tornado watch is already in effect for parts of West Mississippi, although the warm sector is still mainly over Louisiana for now.

Looks like our main window for severe weather here in North-Central Alabama will come from about 12:00 midnight through 10:00 a.m. tomorrow. It remains to be seen if the real warm sector (dewpoints in the mid 60s) can advect into Alabama after midnight… it is a classic case of a cold season “high shear low CAPE” event. Excellent low level veering of the wind for updraft rotation and possible tornadoes, but very little surface based instability.

Most likely, the activity over Mississippi will roll over into a squall line, which will move through Alabama during the pre-dawn hours initially. The main threat with this line will be from strong straight line winds, but an isolated spin-up tornado is possible where you have breaks in the line, or bowing segments. These small tornadoes are short lived and very hard to warn for, but just keep in mind the NWS could issue a few tornado warnings after midnight and before dawn, so be sure and have your NOAA Weather Radio powered up and programmed for your county.

TOMORROW: The RPM suggests the squall line will be south and east of Birmingham by mid-morning, with the severe weather risk shifting down into Southeast Alabama tomorrow afternoon. Looks like a morning where temperatures could potentially climb into the mid 60s in the 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. time frame, then falling back into the 50s tomorrow afternoon as cold air advection begins.

RAIN AMOUNTS: Still looks like a big soaker for the state; the NAM is now printing 1.85″ for Birmingham, with the GFS a little drier at 1.42″. Certainly looks like everybody will see 1-2 inches of rain, with potential for more in a few spots. Since the ground is not saturated, we don’t expect any serious flash flooding problems, although a few isolated issues could certainly pop up.

REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: Wednesday will be sharply colder with temperatures in the 40s all day with a chilly north breeze. Then, we drop into the 20s to start the day Thursday. Thursday through Saturday will be dry with mostly sunny cool days and clear cold nights… highs mostly in the 50s and lows generally in the 30s.

NEXT WEEK: We really need to get this weather system out of here before we focus on next week… watch the Weather Xtreme video and see that the 12Z GFS is pretty dry for next week but showing sharply colder air blowing in here. The ECMWF shows a storm over the Gulf of Mexico at mid-week, but really too far south to impact this part of Alabama. One way or another it looks much colder next week across the Deep South.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST… you can listen/watch live via uStream here.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

I had a great time today visiting the kids at Aliceville Elementary School in Pickens County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: heavy rain, severe, tornado

Category: Alabama's Weather